Tuesday, November 02, 2010

High Stakes Handicapping

I'mna keep this relatively simple, since I've done detailed breakdowns on this subject (as to why I think these are the numbers) a couple times over the last few months.

So here's my line on tomorrow (revised at 2200, because I was working off old numbers):

+8 Republican, -0/+4 to the senate

+63 Republican, -0/+16 to the house

I predict zero Republican senate seats lost, and the following as gains, or *strong maybes:

  1. Arkansas - Boozman
  2. *California - Fiorina
  3. *Colorado - Buck
  4. *Connecticut - McMahon
  5. Illinois - Kirk
  6. Indiana - Coats
  7. *Nevada - Angle
  8. North Dakota - Hoeven
  9. Penn - Toomey
  10. * Washington - Rossi
  11. West VA - Raese
  12. Wisconsin - Johnson

I'm not really sure about CA, CT, NV or WA. I'm predicting Republican pickup of West VA, even though polls are a tossup to a slight Dem hold. I don't trust that poll data, and I don't think it's a tossup. I'm leaning strong towards Rossi picking up. I'm leaning strong against Fiorina picking up. Right now, I'm completely split on Angle and McMahon.

The house picture is a lot fuzzier of course, since there's so many close races.

First thing, there will probably be two losses of Rep seats:

  1. Delaware AL - Carney
  2. Louisiana 2nd - Richmond

I don't see either as iffy right now; but I'm pretty sure those are the only losses.

Now, the iffys...

  1. * Alabama 2 - Roby
  2. * Arizona 7 - McLung
  3. * California 47 - Tran
  4. * Colorado 7 - Frazier
  5. * Conn 5 - Caligiuri
  6. * Idaho 1 - Labrador
  7. * Indiana 1 - Walorski
  8. * Kentucky 6 - Barr
  9. * Minnesota 8 - Cravaack
  10. * Missouri 4 - Hartzler
  11. * North Carolina 2 - Ellmers
  12. * North Carolina 7 - Pantano
  13. * Penn 12 - Burns
  14. * Rhode Island 1 - Loughlin
  15. * Virginia 11 - Fimian
  16. * Washington 2 - Koster

And the likely pickups:

  1. Arizona 1 - Gosar
  2. Arizona 5 - Schweikert
  3. Arizona 8 - Kelly
  4. Arkansas 1 - Crawford
  5. Arkansas 2 - Griffin
  6. California 11 - Harmer
  7. California 20 - Vidak
  8. Colorado 3 - Tipton
  9. Colorado 4 - Gardner
  10. Connecticut 4 - Debicella
  11. Florida 2 - Southerland
  12. Florida 8 - Webster
  13. Florida 22 - West
  14. Florida 24 - Adams
  15. Georgia 2 - Keown
  16. Georgia 8 - Scott
  17. Illinois 11 - Kinzinger
  18. Illinois 14 - Hultgren
  19. Illinois 17 - Schilling
  20. Indiana 8 - Buchson
  21. Indiana 9 - Young
  22. Kansas 3 - Yoder
  23. Louisiana 3 - Landry
  24. Maryland 1 - Harris
  25. Mass 10 - Perry
  26. Michigan 1 - Benishek
  27. Michigan 7 - Walberg
  28. Mississippi 1 - Nunnelee
  29. Mississippi 4 - Palazzo
  30. Nevada 3 - Heck
  31. New Hampshire 1 - Guinta
  32. New Hampshire 2 - Bass
  33. New Jersey 3 - Runyan
  34. New Mexico 1 - Barela
  35. New Mexico 2 - Pearce
  36. New York 19 - Hayworth
  37. New York 20 - Gibson
  38. New York 23 - Doheny
  39. North Carolina 8 - Johnson
  40. North Dakota AL - Berg
  41. Ohio 1 - Chabot
  42. Ohio 6 - Johnson
  43. Ohio 15 - Stivers
  44. Ohio 16 - Renacci
  45. Ohio 18 - Gibbs
  46. Oregon 5 - Bruun
  47. Penn 3 - Kelly
  48. Penn 7 - Meehan
  49. Penn 8 - Fitzpatrick
  50. Penn 10 - Marino
  51. Penn 11 - Barletta
  52. S. Carolina 5 - Mulvaney
  53. S. Dakota AL - Noem
  54. Tenn 4 - DesJarlais
  55. Tenn 6 - Black
  56. Tenn 8 - Fincher
  57. Texas 17 - Flores
  58. Texas 23 - Canseco
  59. Virginia 2 - Rigel
  60. Virginia 5 - Hurt
  61. Virginia 9 - Griffith
  62. Washington 3 - Herrero
  63. W. Virginia 1 - McKinley
  64. Wisconsin 7 - Duffy
  65. Wisconsin 8 - Ribble

I'm very iffy on CA 47, CT 5, and RI 1. I'm pretty solid on Labrador taking over Minnicks seat in Idaho (my congressman); as Minnick has been desperately robocalling my house every few hours, AND I got a personal phone call from a staffer. I'm pretty solid on Grijalva losing Arizona 7. The rest... who knows.

UPDATED with new data at 2200