Sunday, November 18, 2012

NFL week 11 (and beyond)



First thing first...

To Patriots doubters, and Patriots haters, it's LONG past time to STFU.

Inconsistent?

Yes

Infuriating?

Absofrikkenlutely

But anything other than a top five team in the NFL

Yeah... no

Those of you who were in your little happy dance mode when the Patriots were below .500... for all of a week... crowing about how Tom Brady was past it, how the time of the Patriots was over...

Yes... three losses total, by a maximum of 2 points...

Past it... right...

Thou hast beclowned thyselves...

Week 11 stats

Win/Loss: 7-3
Win pct: .700
Total Pts: 358 (nfl leader by 56 points)
Total Pts allwd: 225 (nfl leader by more than 20 points)
Diff: 133
Highest score: 59 (franchise record)
Lowest score: 18
Opp highest score: 31
Opp lowest score: 7
Avg score: 35.8 (nfl leader by more than 5 points)
Avg opp score: 22.5
Avg margin: 13.3
Highest margin of victory: 38
Avg margin of victory: 19.6
Avg margin of loss: 1.3

remaining stats as of week 10 (the week 11 stats aren't complete yet)

Takeaways: 23 (3rd in NFL s of last week, but I believe tonights 4 makes them first)
Giveaways: 7 (NFL leader)
Take/Give: 16 ( NFL leader)
total yards offense: 3873 (nfl leader by over 200yds)
yards offense game: 430.4 (nfl leader by 25 yds game)
passing yards: 2559 (8th in nfl)
pass yards game: 284.3 (7th in NFL)
rushing yards: 1314 (7th in NFL)
rushing yards game: 146 (5th in NFL)
Third down conversion: 50/112 44.6% (2nd in NFL)
Forced Fumbles: 17 (NFL leader... plus two more tonight)

Look at those numbers for a second... Those three losses, 1 point, 1 point, and 2 points? The record could EASILY be 10-0.

Oh and 2 of those 3 of those losses were under the replacement refs thankyouverymuch.

They've massively outscored their opponents... in fact they've massively outscored the entire NFL. Their next highest scoring competitor is 56 POINTS DOWN (as of tonight). They have by far the highest average score margin, the highest average margin of victory, the lowest average margin of defeat...

And they did it while having only the 8th highest passing and 7th highest rushing in the league...

But 8th and 7th add up to first total offense in this case; again by a huge margin.

The defense?

Currently ranked 15th or 16th overall (depending on how you want to count it), 13th in points allowed... but first in fumbles forced, first in fumbles recovered, third in interceptions (four more takeaways tonight, to no giveaways, which I think moves them up to second or first).

That comes out to having the best take to give ratio in the NFL; the most yards gained, and most points scored off of takeaways; and the least yards lost and points lost off of giveaways.

So yeah... All y'all thinking that they're anything but at LEAST a division championship caliber, if not conference or superbowl champion team...

It's past time for y'all to wake up and shut up.

Week 12 and Beyond:

Ok, now for the rest of the season?

Week 12: @ Jets... I'm expecting an easy win here
Week 13: @ Miami... Should be a walkover
Week 14: Houston @ That's a tough game... but despite a 9-1 record, I think the Pats are the better team
Week 15: San Fran @ again, a tough game, but again, I think the Pats are the better team
Week 16: Miami @ I don't expect the Dolphins will be getting any better the rest of the season.

Yes, Gronkowski is probably out for the rest of the regular season, and that's a big loss no doubt; but this season has proven that we can win without depending so much on Gronk (which we COULDN'T do last superbowl unfortunately, basically losing because Gronkowski had a bad day).

My full season record prediction: 11-5 or better (we could very well see 12-4 or even 13-3).

As to who looks like a playoff team to me (top six per conference)?

AFC:

Patriots
Ravens
Steelers
Texans
Broncos
Colts

My pick of the Colts... Frankly I don't think they're much of a team this year (look at the absolute destruction of them by the Pats tonight for example)... but looking at their wildcard competition... I don't think anyone else is any better.

NFC:

Giants
Bears
Packers
Falcons
Niners
Seahawks

Honestly, I think the second NFC wildcard is a tossup between the Buccs, Vikings, and Seahawks; I just picked the Seahawks based on who they've beaten (though who they have lost to isn't impressive). Both the Buccs and the Seahawks have beaten the vikings, and it wasn't very close; and I think the Seahwaks have beaten better teams than the Buccs.

Conference Championship Games:


AFC:
Patriots
Ravens


NFC:
Bears
Falcons



This year is really muddy, I am not in any way confident in these predictions.

In the AFC I really do believe that the Ravens and the Pats are fundamentally better teams than the Texans or Broncos... but frankly, I have no confidence in the consistency of any of them.

In the NFC... well... I think the NFC overall is more competitive, and more consistent than the AFC right now... but again, I have no real confidence.

Right now... these are gut level picks.

Superbowl:

Don't even ask. It's not in any way shape or form predictable right now.

Ask me what I'd LIKE to see? That's easy...

I'd like revenge for Superbowl XX

Bears over Patriots 46-10... I'd like to reverse that.

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