Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections. Show all posts

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Trump Must be Held Accountable for the Bad Actions of His Campaign

This past Tuesday, Donald Trumps campaign manager Corey Lewandowski assaulted a reporter at a press event with Trump...
...in fact right in front of him... Then he walked Trump out of the room right over the woman he knocked to the ground.
He not only physically assaulted a reporter...
...a FRIENDLY reporter no less... for asking a question he didn't like...
...An assault which was caught on audio tape, as well as witnessed, verified, attested to, and already been written about by other reporters who witnessed it...
...But for the last two days, he has directed the Trump campaigns full resources, first to deny the assault ever occurred.. but, far worse... To  attempt to discredit,  defame the character and professional reputation of, and to otherwise ruin... to destroy professionally and personally... the reporter in question.
To this end, they have made baseless accusations of fraud, professional and personal misconduct, and attention seeking. They have also had their proxies attack her relentlessly online; resorting to vile sexual innuendo, and bald faced misogyny.
Lewandowski did not do this alone... the whole campaign was directed towards trying to destroy this woman, with the full knowledge and support of Donald Trump himself.
These are not the actions of an responsible, honorable, or even sane man.
A responsible man wouldn't have done it in the first place... And were Trump a responsible man, he would have stopped, helped the woman up, apologized, and made sure his man apologized.
An honorable man would have immediately admitted fault, and apologized... and were Trump an honorable man, he would have done so, and ensured his man did so.
Even just a sane man, would have immediately made a reasonable face saving excuse, and a small and quiet apology for the "accident"... a trivial gesture to avoid trouble, as well as just the proper thing to do.
Instead, when caught and confronted with proof... these men spent two days trying to destroy the person they assaulted.
These are not the actions of sane men.
They are the actions of raving malignant narcissists, who must destroy anyone they have wronged, rather than admit even the slightest error, fault, blame, or weakness.
These are not the actions of anyone we should ever even think of allowing, anywhere near the power of the office of President... Or any kind of position of trust or responsibility.
These are men who will do anything... say anything... destroy anything... in their pursuit of power.
If Trump and his people are willing to go all out in trying to destroy a reporter, to avoid admitting a relatively small mistake, and making a trivial apology... What would they do if they made a major mistake... if people died... What could possibly be beyond limits to them?
Lewandowski, and Trump stand equally guilty, and equally responsible. If Trump had apologized or fired him Tuesday, or Yesterday, or today... If he hadn't allowed the smear campaign to happen...he could perhaps distance himself from it... Instead, he chose instead to put his full support into trying to destroy the woman.
And now... they both must face the consequences.
Lewandowski must be terminated immediately, expelled from the Republican party, and barred from participating any Republican party campaign; as must anyone in the Trump campaign, who participated in the attempt to destroy this reporter.
Trump must admit his staff and campaigns bad actions immediately, take full personal responsibility, and apologize personally to the reporter; as well as to the witnesses to the event, their media organizations, and most importantly to the American people.
If he does not, then he must be censured by the party, barred from participating in any Republican party events or activities, and from campaigning as a Republican, or for any Republican position or nomination; until such time as he takes responsibility and makes his public apologies.
If he refuses to admit any responsibility or fault, and does not apologize at all... or worse, the campaign continues these attacks in any way... he must be expelled from the party, and removed from any consideration for nomination for any elective position as a Republican candidate.
This is no longer about a campaign manager being too pushy... This is about the integrity of the American political process; the honor, integrity, and legitimacy of the Republican party; and our honor and legitimacy as a nation.
We cannot allow someone who would do such a thing to represent us, in any way, ever.
We are better than this.

Update: A video has surfaced clearly showing the assault, and Corey Lewandowski has been arrested on charges of Battery, but the Trump campaign has doubled down; now instead of claiming that it didn't happen, that instead, Lewandowski was protecting Trump from assault by Fields. 

Monday, September 01, 2014

PATCO, and the REST of the story...

Ahhh... the joys of growing up in a political family...

So, a number of memes and infographics regarding Reagan, and the PATCO strike of August 1981, have been circulating around blogs and social media the last few weeks. Most are just your basic meme fodder; shallow, not remotely accurate junk... But even among those who know something of the story, it seems that very few really understand the larger picture and context of what happened there and why... and how it relates to the Reagan years as a whole.

What you have to understand, is that as much as people remember them as the "Reagan Revolution" years; in fact, the entire 80s and into the early 90s (summer of 1992 to be precise) were essentially a wonderfully corrupt bargain between the Democrats and Republicans.

People mostly think of it as a time when "Reagan cut taxes", and increased spending on the military, which did in fact happen; but that's less than half the story.

The other half, is how Reagan and the republicans managed to get most of that pushed through a democrat dominated congress, relatively easily.

The answer is actually pretty simple...

For every dollar of new spending initiated by Reagan and the republicans, the Democratic majority under Tip O'Neill, initiated (depending on the year) from 1.2 to 1.8 dollars of new spending...which the Republican minority then generally offered only token ACTUAL opposition to, or even actively helped to pass.

Of course they made a great deal of rhetorical noise, but when it came down to money on the table, the bills got passed, and Reagan signed them.

What it boiled down to, was that for the most part (with a few notable exceptions) Reagan and the republicans could spend as much as they wanted on what they ACTUALLY wanted; so long as the republicans didn't actually meaningfully try to stop O'Neill and the dems, from spending as much as THEY really wanted on whatever THEY really wanted.

... note how I am repeating "really" and "actually" several times here. That's important. Rhetoric was one thing, reality was another thing entirely.

Most of the big, loud, noisy spending fights you may remember from the mid and late 80s were, shall we say... full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Most of the time, the minority and majority leadership had worked out what was going to pass, how much was going to be spent, and what if any amendments would be allowed, before anything ever hit the floor, or even got out of committee. The rest of the show was just electioneering and fundraising.

Under this cozy modus vivendi, Reps and Dems could pursue "red meat" issues, and pay back favors for their respective sides, while at the same time acting as each others boogeymen; so each side could look good for their base, get out the vote, work up the faithful, and raise a lot of money.

It was a near perfect system for the parties... Not so much for the people of course, but great for the DNC and RNC.

The mid 80s through mid 90s, were when semi-permanent single party incumbency for most seats became not just the rule (it had been such for many districts since the war already), but the near certainty; both sides making sure that everyone who played for the team, stayed with the team; and anyone thought to be leaving the reservation was replaced with someone who would keep the game going according to plan.

Pretty much the only time an incumbent lost their seat was when they had to be replaced with a more compliant congresscritter; or when they had screwed up bad enough, and botched the spin on the screwup bad enough, that they had to be sacrificed to protect the rest of congress from further investigation into bad behavior (Rostenkowski anyone?).

Oh... actually there was one other exception... The last of the southern ideological realignments.

The south and west voted overwhelmingly democrat up until 1960, and most states still voted majority democrat excepting for president, up until the late 70s or early 80s (the first time the south voted entirely majority Republican, both for president and for new congresscritters, was 1984).

From 1960 on, the south started voting more republican, and the north started voting more democrat. This pattern accelerated dramatically in 1968, 1972, and 1976 with an explicit southern strategy being followed by Republicans to unseat southern democrats; and then a mass turnover of 35 seats in the 1980 election, with the "Reagan revolution" (which was pretty much entirely reversed in 1982 by the way, and the democrat majority was never actually under threat).

After the 1976, and particularly after the 1980 elections, most of the less powerful and shorter serving southern democrats, and pretty much all the northeastern Republicans outside of a few upper class all white districts (the Rockefeller districts basically), were out. Those remaining, generally had safe overwhelmingly urban and university districts;  a powerful machine behind them (missouri for example); were independently wealthy and very popular at home; had a very high national profile; or had a great deal of power in congress (or some combination thereof).

Over the years from 1976 to 1996, almost all of those old line southern democrats died, retired, resigned, moved over to the senate, or switched to the republican party.

During most of those years (particularly from '82 to '92), there was a tentative and tacit understanding, that when the democrats vacated a southern seat that wasn't a safe dem seat, or was demographically trending Republican, so long as it didn't greatly impact the leadership balance or threaten the majority, the party would not fight too hard for it (there were exceptions of course, particular when a states governor or statehouse were dem controlled). The RNC would then hand pick one of their guys who they wanted to be a congressman, put enough money and talent behind him to make a show of it, and the dems would run a no-hoper (an old guy, a lefty woman, a nobody local party ticket puncher, a radical lefty etc...) against him (and yes, it was always a him).

This soft and largely unspoken arrangement worked out to everyones benefit... Or at least to congress and the governments benefit. Again, not so much for the people.

Which brings us back to the original subject...

The PATCO strike was just another one of those red meat issues.

On the one hand, Reagan got to make a big show of being "strong" on domestic issues early in his presidency, and firmly stake out the conspicuously "anti-left" position.

On the other hand, the democrats and the AFL/CIO (who had wanted to bring PATCO to heel since it's formation in 1968) got to pay PATCO back for generally not falling into line with the rest of labor and  specifically for supporting Reagan, and dropping support for some democratic congressional candidates in the 1980 election (and by the way, to explicitly strongarm the Teamsters - who had voted with PATCO - back into line as well); without actually being seen to be against a union (and in fact, to loudly "support" that same union, while helping to ensure it's destruction).

And of course, they both got to posture and grandstand, rallying the base and raising money.

Hell, it's 2014, and the Democrats are STILL raising money and support off the "union busting" of the PATCO strike.

So, democrats, union people... in case you didn't know, it wasn't actually Reagan that busted PATCO, it was Tip O'neill, and the AFL-CIO (who by the way OFFICIALLY crossed the PATCO picket line, and encouraged workers to scab).

Both "sides" (there's really only one side in washington... the government side. We the people don't even rate a side... we're just the floor) got exactly what they wanted, and neither sides ACTUAL vital interests or powerbases were threatened.

Was it a "big conspiracy"?

No, not at all...

It was just a few hundred people, who liked their jobs, acting in their own best interests in trying to keep them. It was basic political economics.

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Alright... so... what happened?

So, how is it that Obama actually managed to pull this out?

This was not some great mandate for Obama (though many will attempt to sell it as such). Actually, under most circumstances this would have been a damning repudiation of him.

Obama lost two more states than in 2008, and the states he won lost electoral votes in between...

He lost support in almost every demographic, almost every statistical grouping... He even lost support among blacks and women (though of course, he still took both groups by wide margins).

In fact, over 10 million fewer people voted for Obama this election than in 2008.

Obama in 2012, actually got less votes than McCain did in 2008.

So how did Obama win?

Well.. as it happens, so did Romney.

...Get less votes than McCain that is... About 3 million less actually.

In fact, Romney lost to Obama, by fewer votes (about 2.6 million) than the difference between McCain and Romney from 2008 to 2012.

If Romney had achieved the same number of votes McCain did in 2008, he probably would have won.

It really did come down to turnout... But not in the way we expected. 

Those of us who believed that Romney was going to win, assumed that that while almost no-one actually loved Romney... or even particularly liked the idea of him as president; that those voters dislike of Obama would cause them to vote for Romney, to get Obama out of office.

They didn't.

Instead, they just didn't vote.

Polls showed a large independent break for Romney. up to 20%

But the turnout models were wrong, and the likely voter models were wrong.  Romney only ended up with a 5% advantage among independents.

Those 15% ?

They just decided not to vote.

In fact, not only did both Romney AND Obama get less votes than 2008... they also both got less than their counterparts in 2004.

Absolute turnout hasn't been this low since 2000, when the country had 35 million fewer people in it.

As a percentage, turnout hasn't been this bad since 1948. 

Yes, seriously, we haven't had turnout this bad in 64 years.

So, where did Romney lose support from McCain?

Actually, in most demographic categories, Romney gained support over McCain as a percentage... But in a few critical groups, he lost substantially:

  • Fiscal conservatives (more than 10% loss)
  • Libertarians (more than 20% loss)
  • Latinos (Romney lost 6%, Obama gained 3%, 3% less voted)
  • Asians (Romney lost 9%, Obama gained 11%, 2% more voted)
  • The elderly (Romney lost 3%, Obama picked up 1%, 2% less voted)
  • He also lost HUGE on "shares my values" (over 10%), and "cares about people like me" (over 6%).

Basically, Romney was successfully portrayed as an uncaring and detached rich guy to "centrists" and "independents"; and he actually IS a big government Republican, which other independents, fiscal conservatives, and libertarians didn't want to vote for.

The Republican party (and most everyone else for that matter) simply assumed that by choosing Romney as their nominee, people would vote for him as the lesser of two evils...

They didn't.

Instead, they just didn't vote. 



Margin of Lawyer

So, Obama won...

At least in theory...

As of right now, projected electoral college counts have it Obama 303, Romney 206 (with Florida not reporting, due to a very high rate of problems around the state).

In practice...

Well... the next week... Maybe the next 34 days... could get a bit messy.

Understand I'm not saying that Romney actually won here...

... BUT...

You see,  due to the nature of the electoral college, that 303 to 206 number is rather misleading.

In fact, with over 113 million votes counted (and a few million more still uncounted), Obama actually only won by something less than 2 million votes nationwide.

In a couple states, his margin was less than 50,000. Several more had a margin of less than 100,000. In about half the states it he is projected to have won, it was under 200,000.

As of midnight pacific, Obamas reported margin of victory in at least 9 states is far lower than the number of uncounted absentee and provisional ballots.

In some cases (Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia), that difference is by well over a hundred thousand... In Florida it's over half a million, and it may be over a million.

Florida is actually just a disaster all over again; with major errors in election procedure that will result in at least 30,000 people voting today instead of yesterday (and probably more, as they decide what to do about other errors).

Ohio is somewhat better, but there are still huge problems with absentee, provisional, and early voting ballots.

As it happens, if Romney were to win four of those states (Florida, Ohio, Virginia, any other state; or Florida, Ohio, and any two other states in question) when the final count is finished, he would be the winner.

No, concessions don't count (2000 proved that in case there was any doubt). States count until they're done, certify their counts, and then declare their electors by certification day. It doesn't matter whether a candidate as conceded or not, the count is what it is.

... and even if concession did count, the problem isn't with the Romney campaign...

Again, I'm not saying that Romney won.

What I'm saying, is that unless things get much clearer in the next 8 hours or so, there may be a big problem... And it's not with Romney, or Obama.

It's with the lawyers.

Obama may have won... he may even have won beyond the margin of error (though as of right now, that is not actually the case)...

But he hasn't won beyond the margin of lawyer.

Again, as 2000 proved, these days you have to win beyond the margin of lawyer.

Even if the candidate or the party doesn't want it, there are enough rich nutjobs out there, that so long as there is any kind of numerical possibility of forcing an Obama loss, they are going to be suing and suing and suing...

Much like 2000, this election may end up being contested, in a serious way that the courts will actually have to address; until the certification deadline.

And, of course, no matter what happens, the conspiracy theorists (on both sides) are going to have a field day.



Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Funny... but also true in part; and a good question to answer

We vote on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November instead of on the weekend like smart people because of horse buggies and stuff. /via @markokloos
Actually, that is in part true... And it brings up a good question for those who are not familiar with American history...

Why do we vote on the first Tuesday, after the first Monday in November?

 The day we vote isn't in the constitution (as many assume). In fact, the law that defines when we do vote, was passed just one month after constitution went into full effect.

 Actually, it's among the very first pieces of U.S. Federal law:
 3.USC§1: The electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed, in each State, on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November, in every fourth year succeeding every election of a President and Vice President.
So, why did our founding fathers decide on that particular day?

It actually does have to do with horses and buggies and stuff.

When the law was first passed, men didn't work on Sundays... and they were not supposed to travel etc.. Also, the majority of American voters were farmers (all voters were landowning men, most of whom were farmers).

The American system of voting has always been based on counties; and importantly, at the time, all voting was done at your county seat.

The way the county system in the U.S. was set up, was to have the seat of each county be a maximum of one days ride away from the edges of the county in each direction (or one days ride TO the county seat); and for the most part it still works that way east of the mississippi.

As it would take up to a full day to travel from the outskirts of the county, to the county seat, and as men couldn't travel on Sundays; it was necessary to have Monday as a full travel day, and Tuesday was the earliest day of the week for election day.

It could have been later in the week of course, but in many farm communities, and fishing communities, market day was Wednesday or Thursday; and it was important that people were back from their county seats the night before market.

So your landowners would prepare for their journey Monday morning, leave and travel all day Monday to get to the county seat; stay overnight in the county seat, voting as soon as the polls opened in the morning, and doing whatever errands they may have needed to do. Then they leave to travel back to their homes the rest of the day Tuesday, so they could prepare for market the next day.

As you can see, voting was far more involved, and far more difficult, when this nation was founded.

Ok, so that's why election day is a Tuesday... but why November?

Well, the laws establishing the electoral college rules required that: 
3.USC§7"The electors of President and Vice President of each State shall meet and give their votes on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December next following their appointment at such place in each State as the legislature of such State shall direct". 
Congress also established that the certified electoral votes of each state must be delivered to the U.S. Capitol (to the vice president in his role as the president of the senate actually, 3.USC§11) by "the fourth Wednesday of December" (3.USC§12).

Initially there was no requirement that the choosing be in November, but when congress adopted the election laws of 1792, they specified that the choosing of electors in the states be some times in  34 days before the first Wednesday in December.

This was so that the election would be close to the end of the year, after the harvest had completed, but still giving electors time to travel to the state capitols to certify their electoral college votes per state; and to deliver and certify their states electoral votes to the national capitol by the deadline.

In 1845, in part due to irregularities in the elections of 1836, 1840, and 1844; congress changed the law so that instead of allowing the election to be any day within that 34 day period; every state around the country would have their choosing of electors on the same day.

...and that's where we got our modern election day.

Monday, November 05, 2012

This Year's Popcorn-Worthy Races, North Idaho Edition

We've most avoided politics on the blog this election, partly because we're busy dealing with other things and partly because we already have enough stress.

However, tomorrow we will be firing up the popcorn popper and spending most of the afternoon and evening with the TV on because this will be an interesting election all around.

Obviously there's the national elections which are popcorn-worthy all by themselves. Idaho should be interesting due to ballot measures so we'll be watching those closely. Thanks to the joys of network television we've been watching the Washington State political ads and there's a ton of popcorn-worthy stuff on WA's ballots. We also have a few local races in our county that should end up very fun, even if they never make the tv news.

Just a note, I'm just listing what I consider interesting to watch, not everything that's on the ballot.

So starting at the local level...
Bonner County, Idaho sheriff's race: R incumbent Darryl Wheeler v. Constitution party challenger Rocky Jordan
In our minds it's "the really conservative guy v. the even more conservative guy". Having grown up in Maricopa County, the fact that I actually have to make an effort to remember Wheeler's name is all the endorsement I need (after spending my life with Sheriff Joe taking every news cycle). Either way, we'll end up with a good sheriff.
Idaho Constitutional Amendment HJR 2aa“Shall Article I, of the Constitution of the State of Idaho be amended by the addition of a New Section 23, to provide that the rights to hunt, fi sh and trap, including by the use of traditional methods, are a valued part of the heritage of the State of Idaho and shall forever be preserved for the people and managed through the laws, rules and proclamations that preserve the future of hunting, fi shing and trapping; to provide that public hunting, fi shing and trapping of wildlife shall be a preferred means of managing wildlife; and to provide that the rights set forth do not create a right to trespass on private property, shall not affect rights to divert, appropriate and use water, or establish any minimum amount of water in any water body, shall not lead to a diminution of other private rights, and shall not prevent the suspension or revocation, pursuant to statute enacted by the Legislature, of an individual’s hunting, fi shing or trapping license?”
The amendment would take the "right to hunt" out of the state statutes and put it in the state constitution instead, therefore limiting the ability of the legislators to fuck with it and the ability of anti-hunting groups to sue individuals. I'm going to guess this will pass but the handwringing will be epic.

(Note: all 3 propositions on the ballot are tied together, as they each deal with a specific part of the educational reforms passed last year. The controversy over all of them has been huge and the mud-flinging quite intense. A YES vote means keeping the legislation, a NO vote means casting out the legislation.) 
Idaho Proposition 1: 
REFERENDUM TO APPROVE OR REJECT LEGISLATION LIMITING NEGOTIATED AGREEMENTS BETWEEN TEACHERS AND LOCAL SCHOOL BOARDS AND ENDING THE PRACTICE OF ISSUING RENEWABLE CONTRACTS. 
Referendum to approve or reject S1108; relating to education: revising Idaho Code
by amending 33-513, 33-514, 33-514A, 33-515, 33-515A, 33-516, 33-521, 33-522,
33-1003, 33-1004H, 33-1271, 33-1272, 33-1273, 33-1274, 33-1275, 33-1276 and
33-402; repealing 33-1004G; and, by adding new sections 33-515B, 33-523, 33-524,
33-1271A, 33-1273A and 33-1274A to revise the annual written evaluation process for
professional staff; phase out renewable individual contracts; provide that professional
staff employed after January 31, 2011 shall not be entitled to a formal review of decisions
for not being reemployed; allow school boards to change the length of terms stated in
current contracts and reduce the salaries of certifi cated staff with renewable contracts
without due process proceedings; require school districts to disclose to employees a
list of professional liability insurance providers; eliminate education support program for
school districts experiencing enrollment decreases greater than one percent; eliminate
teacher early retirement incentives; restrict the scope of negotiated agreements between
school boards and professional staff to compensation and the duration of negotiated
agreements to one year; and eliminate provisions for fact fi nding in professional
negotiations.

This is quite obviously the VERY condensed version. It essentially eliminates tenure for new teachers, puts all teachers on limited-time and limited-term contracts, and bases contract renewal and layoff decisions on a teacher's performance:

"For all evaluations conducted after June 30, 2012, at least fi fty percent (50%) of the evaluation shall be based on objective measure(s) of growth in student achievement, as determined by the board of trustees. In addition, input from the parents and guardians of students shall be considered as a factor in the evaluation of principals and any other school-based 
administrative employees’ evaluation." 

Importantly, all such decisions would be made by the local school board, not the state.

Also, what's not mentioned in the summary is that it also restricts the ability of unions to bargain for changes to contracts AND requires unions to prove that the majority of teachers in the district in question are represented by the union.
Idaho Proposition 2: 
REFERENDUM TO APPROVE OR REJECT LEGISLATION PROVIDING TEACHER PERFORMANCE PAY BASED ON STATE-MANDATED TEST SCORES, STUDENT PERFORMANCE, HARD-TO-FILL POSITIONS AND LEADERSHIP. 

Referendum to approve or reject S1110; relating to education: revising Idaho Code by adding new section 33-1004I to provide and distribute in fi scal year 2013 state share-based pay for performance bonuses to certifi cated instructional staff based on a school’s median student growth percentiles on state achievement tests and a school’s median standardized score on state achievement tests and local share-based pay for performance based on student test scores, graduation rates, dropout rates, percent of graduates attending postsecondary education or entering military service, meeting federal “adequate yearly progress”, number of students successfully completing dual credit or advanced placement classes; percent of students in extracurricular activities, class projects, portfolios, successful completion of special student assignments, parental involvement, teacher-assigned grades, and/or student attendance rates, and, in fi scal year 2014 and thereafter, in addition to the aforementioned bonuses, provide incentives for certifi cated instructional staff in hard-to-fi ll positions and leadership awards for certifi cated instructional staff who assume one or more of the following additional duties: instructional staff mentoring, content leadership, lead teacher, peer coaching, content specialist, remedial instructor, curriculum development, assessment development, data analysis, grant writing, special program coordinator, research project, professional development instructor, service on education committees, educational leadership and earning national board certifi cation.
Also VERY condensed. In a nutshell, merit pay based on student academic growth, the performance of the school, AND taking on extra duties.

Idaho Proposition 3: 
REFERENDUM TO APPROVE OR REJECT LEGISLATION AMENDING SCHOOL DISTRICT FUNDING, REQUIRING PROVISION OF COMPUTING DEVICES AND ONLINE COURSES FOR HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION. 
Referendum to approve or reject S1184; relating to education: revising Idaho Code by amending 33-125, to provide for a fi scal report card; repealing 33-129 relating to science education matching grants; amending 33-357 relating to a certain internet website; amending 33-1002 relating to the educational support program; adding new section 33-1002A relating to fractional average daily attendance; amending 33-1004 relating to staff allowances; amending 33-1004A relating to the experience and education multiplier; amending 33-1004E relating to district’s salary-based apportionment; amending 33-1004F relating to obligations to the public employee retirement system and social security; amending 33-1020 relating to moneys distributed to the Idaho Digital Learning Academy; adding new section 33-1021 relating to distribution of moneys to school districts for certain math and science courses; adding new section 33-1022 relating to public school technology and expenditures or distributions of moneys for such; adding new section 33-1626 relating to dual credit; adding new section 33-1627 relating to online courses and mobile computing devices and providing certain expenditures or distributions of moneys; adding new section 33-5216 relating to public postsecondary institutions being authorized to operate public charter high schools.
If you listened to the teacher's unions you'd think of this as the "replacing teachers with laptops" legislation, when it's really not. This proposition includes a lot but what I find most interesting is the requirement for graduating high school students to take at least 2 courses online (at the school even), make sure students have access to digital learning via laptops, and provides for virtual charter high schools.

All 3 propositions will live or die together and the fallout should be interesting.

Washington State

As I mentioned above, we get to see WA political ads. The most interesting races this year will be:
Washington State Governor: Jay Inslee democrat v. Rob McKenna republican. 
The ads have been so vicious this round that we'll be glad to see this race decided. 2 very different men, it will be interesting to see who WA votes in.
Initiative Measure No. 1185 concerns tax and fee increases imposed by state government. This measure would restate existing statutory requirements that legislative actions raising taxes must be approved by two-thirds legislative majorities or receive voter approval, and that new or increased fees require majority legislative approval.
We'll see if WA is finally tired of continual tax hikes coming out of Olympia.
Initiative Measure No. 1240 concerns creation of a public charter school system. This measure would authorize up to forty publicly-funded charter schools open to all students, operated through approved, nonreligious, nonprofit organizations, with government oversight; and modify certain laws applicable to them as public schools.
Cue the handwringing by the teacher's unions.
The legislature passed Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 6239 concerning marriage for same-sex couples, modified domestic partnership law, and religious freedom, and voters have filed a sufficient referendum petition on this bill. This bill would allow same-sex couples to marry, preserve domestic partnerships only for seniors, and preserve the right of clergy or religious organizations to refuse to perform, recognize, or accommodate any marriage ceremony.Should this bill be: accepted or rejected
If other states are any indication, this should be interesting both before AND after the election.
Initiative Measure No. 502 concerns marijuana. This measure would license and regulate marijuana production, distribution, and possession for persons over twenty-one; remove state-law criminal and civil penalties for activities that it authorizes; tax marijuana sales; and earmark marijuana-related revenues.
The entire country will be watching this one. If it passes, expect a line of challenges all the way up to and including the Supreme Court. This is the most popcorn-worthy out of all the WA state initiatives.

And, of course, national...
President of the United States: incumbent Democrat Barack Obama v. Republican Mitt Romney v. a whole bunch of other people who probably won't matter.
The legal challenges might last a decade. I'm guessing most politically minded people will be up late on Tuesday watching this pan out.

Should be a very interesting election all around.

Mel







Thursday, November 01, 2012

A little more electoral math... 11, or 14, or 22

11, or 14...


That's the minimum number of states it would take under the apportionment scheme for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections; to win in order to make 270 electoral votes.

Well... for a democrat anyway:

California - 55
Texas - 38
Florida - 29
New York - 29
Illinois - 20
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
Michigan - 16
North Carolina - 15
New Jersey - 14
District of Columbia - 3

Of course, that 11 includes Texas, which hasn't voted for a democrat for president since 1976; and isn't going to be doing so in the next 3 elections either, barring some strange change in ideology and demographics...

But all of those states except Texas have voted democrat in the last 20 years. Georgia is a tough one for Dems to win, but Clinton did it.

So, it's not really 11... Political reality, with an attractive democratic candidate, an unattractive republican... Maybe a third party splitting the republican vote as in '92...

Virgina, Washington, and Indiana could possibly replace the lost EVs of Texas.

Call it 14 states...

For Republicans, the numbers are substantially different:

Texas - 38
Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Arizona - 11
Indiana - 11
Tennessee - 11
Missouri - 10
Alabama - 9
Colorado - 9
South Carolina - 9
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 8
Oklahoma - 7
Arkansas - 6
Iowa - 6
Kansas - 6
Mississippi - 6
Nevada - 6

The political reality is that republicans have to win 22 states to hit 270; and of course, Pennsylvania is a tough one for Republicans (as Georgia is for Dems), but possible.

You'll note, there are six important possibles in each camp: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. These are the states which swing relatively easily, and which have 13 or more electoral votes. Together, they have 111 electoral votes; nearly half of what is required to hit the magic 270.

Ok... what are the "lock in" states? The ones that, again barring some radical changes are going to keep voting the way they have been, nearly guaranteed?

Democrat locks (16 states plus DC: 218ev):

California - 55
New York - 29
Illinois - 20
Michigan - 16
New Jersey - 14
Washington - 12
Massachusetts - 11
Maryland - 10
Minnesota - 10
Wisconsin - 10
Connecticut - 7
Oregon - 7
Rhode Island - 4
Hawaii - 4
Vermont  - 3
Delaware - 3
DC - 3

Republican locks (14 states: 108):

Texas - 38
South Carolina - 9
Alabama - 9
Louisiana - 8
Oklahoma - 7
Arkansas - 6
Mississippi - 6
Utah - 6
Idaho - 4
Montana - 3
Wyoming - 3
North Dakota - 3
South Dakota - 3
Alaska - 3

So you can see, the dems have a 110 point lock in advantage; which coincidentally is the number of EV's from California, New York, Illinois, and Michigan.

The scary part of course is that for any given election, dems only need to get 52 more EV's over their lock ins.

Possible swings given the right circumstances  (20 states: 212ev)

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Tennessee - 11
Indiana - 11
Arizona - 11
Missouri - 10
Colorado - 9
Kentucky - 8
Kansas - 6
Iowa - 6
Nevada - 6
Nebraska - 5
New Mexico - 5
West Virginia - 5
Maine - 4
New Hampshire - 4

Obviously, some of these states lean strongly one way or the other, but under the right circumstances they could swing away from that lean.

Now, here's the really scary part though... How many (or few) of the potentially competitive states need to swing for each to win.

Democrats swing to win (3 states: 52ev):

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Any other state (all states have at least 3 electoral votes)

Republicans swing to win (11 states: 162ev):

Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Tennessee - 11
Indiana - 11
Arizona - 11
Missouri - 10
Colorado - 9

And of course, if you remove PA from the mix as a strong democrat leaner; then Republicans basically have to win both Florida... and almost every other competitive state.

If Republicans lose Florida, and Pennsylvania, they have to win EVERY other competitive state.

If Republicans lose Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio; they cannot win mathematically.

And remember, those lock ins are pretty much the same, no matter how bad the candiate is for any given party, nor how good the other guy may be.

It would take a dead girl or a live boy to knock those lock in states out of the democrat camp (except MAYBE wisconsin and Minnesota... and I really don't think so)...

...And even then, the dem candidate would STILL take California, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Michigan. The democratic machine is so strong in those states that there is literally no way they would vote for anyone other than a democrat.

The republican lockins aren't nearly as strong; and there aren't really any strong republican machines left outside of some small state parties. The only state that is nearly as locked in as the dem locks, is Utah (hasn't voted for a democrat since Johnson/Goldwater).

This is why, over the past 50 or so years, it has taken either an exceptionally bad democrat candidate, an exceptionally good republican candidate, or both; for a Republican to actually be elected in this country.

Oh and coincidently, it's also one reason why no third party has a shot in hell at winning an election in this country.

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Under a week out, updating my 2012 prediction


So, 9 months ago, I published this prediction on the 2012 election:

http://anarchangel.blogspot.com/2012/02/so-9-months-out-my-prediction-for-2012.html



This was of course a best case map as far as I was concerned, but here's what I said at the time :
"I'm pretty confident that, presuming nothing insane, ridiculous, heinous etc... happens between now and november, that I will come within 20 votes, and I am moderately confident that I'll be within 10 (the only state I see as particularly iffy here is New Mexico)."
Well, now we're less than a week out; the election is next Tuesday... And I'm still pretty happy with my prediction from 9 months ago.

At this point, I'm unsure about New Mexico, and Pennsylvania; actually I'm counting them for Obama right now...

But I'm still pretty sure I've got it right within 20 or so electoral votes.

My current assumptions are:

  1. People who will actually vote  for Romney are generally underrepresented in polling (for various reasons)
  2. Pollsters "likely voter" assumptions are significantly off. Most polls have a +4 to +8 democrat bias and, I believe the opposite will be true; with at least a +2 Republican bias, and possibly as high as +10
  3. "Independent" voters are breaking at a +8 to +20 for Romney (depending on the poll)
  4. Almost all "undecided" voters are actually going Romney; unless undecideds are more than 6%, or the margin of error is over 4%
  5. Any state polling under 50% Obama, is going to break Romney, unless undecideds are more than 6% or the margin of error is over 4%
  6. Any state with Romney at 49% or higher is going Romney, unless undecideds are more than 6% or margin of error is more than 4%
  7. Any poll with a margin of error significantly over 4% is basically garbage data, and should probably not be considered, unless the polling margin is higher than the MOE plus 2%. 

Now, as to the polls themselves... well, take a look.

Several national polls now have Romney up over Obama by as much as +5. No credible poll has Obama at higher than 50% nationally, and most have him at 48% or below... And that's BEFORE correcting for democrat biased turnout models.

Still, it comes down to the individual states... and that data is VERY interesting:

http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/

I still think 270 to win  is the best poll indexer out there (you can click on the individual states to get multiple results from all major polls in the state).

The most critical states right now are Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

...Not surprising, since they've been the critical states in the last three elections; and probably will be for the next three elections...

That's part of the reason I am calling Ohio and Florida to break Romney; because NO credible polls with a margin of error less than 4% put Obama at over 50% in either state, and only a few even have him reaching 50% (and again, those are not corrected for turnout model bias).

Although the Obama campaign is representing that they are still competitive in Florida, it's pretty obvious at this point that he's done there. His support has topped out, and even with the bad turnout models, he's well under 50%. Not one single poll has Obama even at 50%, even with the biased turnout model. Most have him at 47% or under.

Ohio is still competitive for Obama, with a couple of polls having him hit 50%; but none are showing over 50%, most are 48% or under, and those that show 50% are higher margin of error polls.

So yes, Obama is still competitive in Ohio, but I'm confident in calling it for Mitt.

The only real question is Pennsylvania.

http://www.270towin.com/2012-polls/Pennsylvania/

Only four major polls currently show Romney over 50% in Pennsylvania. Of those, one shows him at 52% and three are 51%. All the polls showing Obama at 48% or over, have margins of error over 2.5%. All the polls showing Obama at 50% or over have margins of error over 4%.

So, what's the big picture?

Note: The 8 states with 1 million population or less are generally going to have a very high margin of error in polls; both because the polling companies spend less money on those states (they have less electoral votes), and because the sampling methods polling organizations use are actually LESS accurate, for very small population.

Also, for cultural reasons, most of those states (5 of the 8 are very conservative or libertarian) generally
 have poorer response rates to polls; and tend to have a higher number of "independent" voters, and a higher number of "undecided" voters... ; all of which tend to increase the overall margin of error. 

Given the best poll data we have right now...

That set of assumptions above gives Obama the following states:

Massachusetts
Vermont
Hawaii
New York
Rhode Island
Illinois
California
Maryland
Michigan
Washington
Maine
New Jersey
Wisconsin
DC

That set of assumptions gives Romney the following states:

Utah
Idaho
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
Mississippi
Alabama
Indiana
North Dakota
Missouri
Kentucky
Indiana
Montana
West Virginia
South Dakota
Arizona
Nebraska
Georgia
North Carolina
Florida
Nevada
Virginia
Kansas

These states have a margins under 2%, margins of error over 4%, or undecided over 6%, but I think will break Obama:

Connecticut
Oregon
Pennsylvania
New Mexico (New Mexico polls are incredibly inconsistent with huge margins of error and undecided)
Delaware

These states have a margins under 2%, margins of error over 4%, or undecided over 6% and I think will break Romney:

South Carolina
Ohio
Alaska
Colorado
New Hampshire (the margins of error are concerning me, but the trend is Romney)
Wyoming
Nevada


That scores out as 291 Romney, 247 Obama

Note, Romney can lose both Pennsylvania and Ohio; so long as he wins Florida.

He can lose Florida, if he wins Pennsylvania and Ohio (and Nevada, New Hampshire, and Iowa as I've projected. Some people still think Iowa and Nevada are competitive states for Obama. I'm not one of them).

If Romney takes Wisconsin or Minnesota (I don't think it will happen, but it's possible), it's basically over.

In fact, right now, there are far more ways for Obama to lose, than there are for him to win... and only a couple realistic ways in which he would win.

The Basic Premise Behind Campaign Finance Laws

A great deal of ink (or film, or bits) has been expended this election cycle, primarily on the far left (though some on the right... particularly with the more populist factions), decrying the actions of "independent" political action committees, superPACs, and "issue advocacy groups"; as somehow corrupt, evil, anti-democratic etc..

The rhetoric on the left, is that the "citizens united" decision has basically given "shadowy actors" like say, Karl Rove and the Koch brothers, effectively a blank check to "buy elections".

Of course, the idea that we need to "get the money out of politics" has been a political meme for approximately as long as politics has existed...

... and to a degree, there is a point there. ACTUAL political corruption, in the sense of directly buying influence or buying votes; is certainly something we need to combat as much as possible.

We'll never eliminate it of course, humans have an endless capacity for venality, greed, and self interest. That's just the way it is...

Frankly, the only way to get money out of politics; is to get politics out of money.

By which I mean, that so long as politics has an impact on my business and my life (and it always will); if I have money, I'm going to have a strong incentive to spend it, to make the political process work to my advantage... Or even just to hurt me less.

And that's the way it SHOULD be... I SHOULD be able to spend my money to reduce the harm that government does to me, or to try to make government come out to my advantage; so long as I am not actually bribing a legislator to vote the way I want, committing fraud etc...

There's a simple way of combating this; and that's reducing the power of government to impact the individual, such that they no longer have any incentive (or really, so that their incentive is lower... since you'll never get that little political interference) to spend their money in that way.

But that's not what these folks are decrying from the hilltops.

What they are screaming about, is essentially free speech they don't like.

Make no mistake, money IS speech. If you don't have money, you can't buy media air time. If you can't buy media air time, then you can say whatever you want, but you'll be speaking to an empty room.

One of the basic principles of free speech, is that you have the right to say whatever you like (short of libel, slander, fraud, or incitement to crime); so long as you are not infringing on others rights by doing so.

Another one of those basic principles is that you have the right to say it... But I don't have to listen to it, and you don't have the right to make me.

It's up to me, to decide who and what I listen to, and to use my own judgement and experience in doing so.

So, you may not like what these people are saying; but so long as media companies are willing to sell them airtime, you have no right to restrict that. By attempting to do so, you are attempting to regulate free speech (conversely, you also have no right to force those media companies to sell time to opposing viewpoints; another leftist canard about "fairness").

Makes sense right?

Well, it does to me... and to the supreme court; and when it's causes that leftists agree with they're perfectly OK with it.

The REAL argument, comes down to this:

"We can't allow these bad evil people and groups to speak, because although I'm smart enough to know the difference between lies and truth, the general population are too stupid to do so."

So, rather than actually convince the people of their own side of the argument, they seek to prevent the other side from even speaking.

It's entirely consistent with the historical leftist narrative that the "proletariat is fooled by the comfortable goods of the bourgeoisie and the lies of the ruling class" etc... etc...

Their basic premise here being that if the people could only hear and understand the truth, that the leftists ideas would be universally acclaimed as true and necessary, and immediately put into place (with the leftist elites themselves in charge of course... after all, who better to lead than those who understand the ideas the best).

They can't accept the idea that maybe people don't WANT more government, with more power over everyone's lives and businesses... Because that would go entirely against the ideas they have based their entire lives and identities on; and that simply can't be possible.

...but that's another argument entirely.
Oh and I should note that there is a "right wing" authoritarian narrative that is nearly identical in principle, that the people are too stupid, lazy, corrupt etc... To be trusted to make their own MORAL decisions; and that the force of government must be used to make people "do the right thing". That's equally as bad; it's just not what we're talking about right now.
Now... I hate these ads as much as everyone else... But not because I decry "those fools actually believe these foul lies" (though they may be foul lies, and "the people" may believe them); simply because they're REALLY IRRITATING.

If the people actually are so stupid that they believe "foul lies"; and the other side isn't smart enough, or doesn't have a good enough argument to convince them otherwise...

Well, so be it.

That's the problem with a democratic representative republic. You have to live with the representatives the electorate choose, and the things they vote for.

It's also why it's so critical that we have a strictly limited government of  enumerated powers only... Or rather, that we return to that; as we haven't actually had such a government since 1861.

Our government was intended to provide protection against the tyranny of the majority... Unfortunately from the first day that government was put in place, people with "good ideas" have attempted to (often successfully) use the force of government, to have those ideas implemented, without regard to the legitimate powers of government, the desire of the people, or the rights of those being governed.

The left are perfectly willing to crow about how great democracy is... until the people refuse to vote for what they want; at which point they try to get the courts to make the people do what they want anyway.

Because, as we all know, when it comes to leftist causes, they are all "moral imperatives"...

Or as a very smart man put it once "The ends justify the means".


Thursday, October 04, 2012

Obama gets a lesson in just how much delivery matters

At this point, no matter how far in the tank they may be, pretty much everyone has to acknowledge that Romney CRUSHED Obama in Oct 3rd debate.

Beyond crushed actually... Lefties are literally crying about the beating their guy took. And the thing is... They have no idea why.

Well, some do; but from the general commentariat I'm hearing a lot of "why didn't he go after him on his evil foul lies" etc... etc...

That is definitely NOT getting it.

Romney didn't win on the facts; though he certainly had those far enough in his favor. Romney won on his attitude, and his delivery.

 Obama dictated to you... Everyone who disagrees with him is wrong. Everything he says is right. All of his failures are just because you didn't do what he told you to do... and all your failures are either because you didn't follow his advice, or because some big bad greedy businessman did it to you.

Romney was trying to have a conversation with you. He was asking you to listen. He was saying "look, maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right... I don't care about being right, I just want to do what works".

Obama was the college professor neighbor you don't like, because he's always telling you how you're doing everything wrong, and how if you'd just follow his advice, you'd be just as good as he is at everything.

Romney was your smart, successful, nice neighbor, who coaches the baseball team, and is on the schoolboard trying to get the local high school back on track.

Obama stayed on message, hardcore, repeating his talking points to the point of irritating the entire country.

The message wasn't working.

He should have realized that talking points weren't going to work, and he should have gone extemporaneous... Though after what we've see the last four years, that may be as close to it as he gan get.

 Now, let's see how they try to spin this for Obama. Should be fun.

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Reality Check: Why, even if Romney is as bad as "they" say (and he isn't) you should still vote for him... or at least against Obama

There's a hell of a lot of folks out there sturming and dranging, with much rending of garments and gnashing of teeth etc... etc... that Romney is no better than Obama; and that we'd be better off with Obama being re-elected, but having the Republicans secure a stronger majority in the house, and a full majority in the senate (preferably veto proof) so there would be a divided government.

The idea here is that gridlock is better than a unified government led by a moderate who isn't dedicated to cutting government expenditures, and government interference in our lives.

These same folks frequently point to the gridlock of the Clinton years as a perfect example; because with a divided government, congress was far less able to screw the country up.

These people are dead wrong.

Oh yes, they're right, in that a divided government restrains congress (unless there are vetoproof majorities of course). Unfortunately it does almost nothing to restrain the powers, roles, influences, and general ability to screw the country up, of the executive branch.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of people really do not understand how our three branch system of government works. For example, they tend to think of the President as having a lot of domestic power and power over the economy, which is entirely false... at least directly. Most people don't understand that as an individual, the president has very little direct power over anything but foreign policy, and short term responses to emergencies.

However, the president (and very importantly his party), has a huge amount of indirect power over our lives, through judicial and administrative appointees, and the administration of the executive branch and the agencies thereof (DOJ, FBI, ATF, IRS, DOE, DOI etc...).

It's through these courts, and executive agencies, that we intersect with the federal government most in our lives by far. When you are interacting with the federal government, it is almost always going to be through an executive agency, or a court. Who runs these institutions, how they are run, and how they exercise executive powers, has a huge impact on our lives, and our nation.

Ironically, not only are the wailing gnashers dead wrong, but the very example they cite to support their contention, provides a fully sufficient argument to prove my thesis.

There are four EXTREMELY important reasons why Obama cannot be allowed to have a second term:

  1. Supreme court justices
  2. Other federal judges
  3. Executive branch appointees (heads of agencies, senior bureaucrats etc...)
  4. Executive orders, signing statements, administrative rule and procedures, and other executive instruments of regulation and policy

The president as an individual has very little direct power over domestic issues as I said; but these four elements give the president, and his party (the party tends to provide or at least strongly influence the candidates and final decisions for each of these posts, as well as for the interpretation of executive powers) ENORMOUS power to screw the country up.

Remember, lots of people said the exact same things they're saying now about Romney, about Bush the Elder back in '92 (and frequently they voted for Perot as a protest), and Bob Dole in '96 (Dole was a deliberate sacrificial lamb in that election anyway); and so we got 8 years of the Clinton adminstration reshaping the federal administrative and judicial regimes.

We are now, almost twenty years later, STILL dealing with the problems caused by Clinton appointees, and particularly with how the Clinton administration ran the DOD, ATF, FBI, and CIA.

We'll be cleaning out Obama appointees for years as it is; we can't afford to give him the chance to screw things up even more.

Honestly, the last ten lines of this post should be enough of a reason for any conservative or libertarian to vote Obama out...

  • DC v. Heller was decided 5-4
  • McDonald v. Chicago was decided 5-4
  • Supreme court justices are a lifetime appointment
  • Antonin Scalia is almost 76 and will be 80 years old by 2016
  • Anthony Kennedy is almost 76 and will be 80 years old by 2016
  • Stephen Breyer is almost 74 and will be 78 years old by 2016
  • Ruth Bader Ginsburg is almost 79 and will be 83 years old by 2016
  • The mean life expectancy for men in the United States is 76 (for women it's 80)
  • All four of the negative votes for those two decisions above were from liberal justices
  • Obama has already appointed two horrifically bad liberal justices, both under 60

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Misundertanding the Problem

The "Republican Establishment", consisting mostly of the RNC (and particularly the finance committe) essentially chose Mitt Romney as "Their Guy",  during the last presidential election.

You know... the one they lost.

If they'd had their way, Mitt would have been the nominee in 2008... and if he was, the swing wouldn't have been 3 points, it would have been 10 (of course, the media have ACTED as if it was a 10 point swing from day one... more shilling for "their man").

The problem is, the "Republican Establishment" is so deluded,  they actually believe they would have WON with Mitt. They're dead certain of it in fact.

It's not quite that they're completely insane... Though it may seem so...

It's that they don't understand the problem

For the last several months, they've been pretending to allow other "candidates" to vy for the nomination; however, at this point, they've made it clear that Romney WILL be the Republican nominee for president, that we have nothing to say about it; and that anyone who challenges this edict will be DESTROYED.

They've already done it to Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, and Rick Perry (though Perry is somehow still operating under the delusion that he is a candidate); and as of a few days back, they've let loose the destruction machine on Newt Gingrich.

Now... I'm not a big fan of Mr. Gingrich, and I don't think he'd be a great choice for president... but of the current field I'd take him (or Rick Perry), over Romney; and certainly over Obama.

As I've written before, there's a lot that Gingrich and I disagree on; but on base principles, we're about 75% with each other.

Seriously... If I thought that Newt wasn't one of the few guys who could actually get Obama re-elected by taking the Republican nomination, I'd be happy to support him for president. I'd certainly take him over "their guy".

Frankly, I'm very concerned at this point... damn near terrified in fact... because I believe the RNC have VERY badly miscalculated.

I believe they have made the same improper calculation they made in 2000; only this time, it may result in an actual electoral defeat, rather than just a near defeat and moral empowerment of those who would destroy our nation.

What do I mean by that?

In 2000, the RNC turned John McCain; a previously honorable man, who I had great respect for, and who (while not perfect), was generally a solid moderate conservative, with a very reasonable legislative record (no he wasn't perfect. No senator is); into a RINO enemy for life.

They did this, by taking the man who would have otherwise relatively easily captured the Republican nomination, beat Al gore handily, and most likely have been re-elected without too much difficulty after four years; and used the RNC machine to utterly destroy his campaign (particularly in the south), with personal slurs and Nixon style ratfucking.

They did this, because they believed (correctly) that they could handle George W. Bush better than they could handle McCain; and because the people around Bush were already "their people".

I've mentioned this before, but I haven't, and can't speak in detail about it, because I am under lifetime NDA; but I did information security work for the McCain campaign in 2000.

At this point, a it was now almost 12 years ago, and as I am no longer primarily attempting to earn my living in information security; I feel comfortable saying that I know a lot more than what has been publicly disclosed (or can be disclosed) about dirty tricks in the campaign, and that it was a lot worse than what is publicly known.

At this point, December 2011, the "republican establishment" understands that they made a mistake with Bush; but they do not understand what mistake they made.

The dangerous part, is that they believe they DO understand the mistake they made... worse, they believe they have a solution.

The mistake they THINK they made, was in Bush's presentation, handling, and image; and they believe that by choosing Mitt Romney as their standard bearer, they have corrected that mistake.

In reality, the error they made with Bush was in choosing a man with the wrong type of personality, and the wrong type of mind....

Unfortunately, it was exactly that personality and type of mind, which made them choose Bush in the first place.

It's what they want; and it's wrong both for winning this election, and for being the president of the united states from 2013 through 2017.

To explain this, I need to talk about who our former president is, as a man, for a minute (a man who, to be clear, I am not a big fan of as a president; though I believe him to be a good man, who sincerely tried to do what he believed was the right thing when he could).

George W. Bush has a particular type of personality; which has advantages and disadvantages for high level leadership, but which is also one of the most important factors in why Bush was such a target of hatred; and why he was ultimately, not a very successful or good president (though not nearly the failure or awful president he has been portrayed as).

It isn't that Bush is stupid; no matter how much a (large) portion of society (particularly the media) would love to believe it (and love to portray him as such).

What Bush is, is unfacile with verbal communications. He is largely inarticulate in self expression, and he does not process or respond quickly to the words of others.

What drives certain people to spittle flinging, is that the intellectual and artistic institutions of this nation, and those who exist within them; use verbal facility as a proxy both for intelligence, and for personal moral worth (though they would not express it in those terms).

When these people see someone who is verbally unskilled (and therefore, in their emotional context, unintelligent and morally unworthy), in a position of greater subjective value or power than their own; it causes great resentment, sometimes to the point of rage.

Although it's true that Bush is not particularly articulate, and often has difficulty expressing himself (by the by, part of that is real; part is cultivated as part of his image of being "a guy you could have a beer with... if he still drank"; and part is simply the structure of his brain. Bushes malapropisms, and difficulty in extemporaneous formal/semi-formal speech; are actually a symptom of a fairly common learning disability, and have little to do with his intelligence or education); in reality, he's actually very intelligent.

Bush's IQ, based on his ASVAB, AFOQT scores, and SAT scores, is approximately 125. Bush is also EXTREMELY well educated, both formally and personally. He graduated from Philips Academy (an EXTREMELY rigorous prep school in Massachusetts); and with a BS in history from Yale (he had a c+ average most of his college years, but improved to a B+ his senior year). He also earned an MBA from Harvard Business School (which does not give "gentlemans C's"); and by all accounts, he's a HUGE reader, mostly of history and biographies.

Frankly, he's almost certainly more intelligent, and better educated; than the vast majority of the people who hate him for being "stupid".

Bush's memory for fine detail is poor, not from any lack of ability, but because he doesn't see details as particularly important; he's a big picture kind of guy. He believes in understanding, and wisdom, over knowledge and detail.

In some ways, Bush's raw intellect and analytical ability is actually quite impressive. He has a spectacular capability to understand and set priorities, filter through large amounts of information to get to the core of issues, and make decisions based on those priorities and core problems. He trusts instincts over detailed analysis, and he trusts men over facts. He believes fully in making decisions based on the man, not on the information... and he's a hell of a poker player.

But there's another side to Bushes intelligence... his moral certainty, and intellectual certitude.

Bush doesn't change his mind... basically ever. He doesn't doubt himself, or his decisions... basically ever. Yes I know, this is not literally true, but it is apparently true to the outside world.

That particular aspect of his personality enrages those who hate him even further. Nothing drives a man who's ego is wrapped up entirely in their intellect; as a man who fundamentally disagrees with them, and who will not even allow the smallest possibility that they may be wrong.

Bush is the type that, once he gives his loyalty, or once he makes a moral decision; he keeps to that no matter what. He is also someone who relies on advice, and on advisers. When he trusts someone, he trusts them completely; and will delegate things within their scope, entirely to that person, without oversight. As I said above, he trusts the man, not the facts.

Reagan had a similar type of personality.

This is... convenient... for a certain type of bureaucratic machine. This personality, is what convinced the Republican machine (mostly correctly), that they could largely shape the Bush presidency, by controlling the advice he got, and the people around him.

At this point, the RNC believes that if they could just have Bush, without the "rage" against him; that everything would be perfect.

In Romney, the RNC believes they have their "perfect" guy.

Romney has that same tractability, reliance on advisers and advice, and most of the loyalty to individuals and the organization that Bush had (though not as absolute by any means); without the unfortunate tendency to use the wrong word at the wrong time, or piss people off just by opening his mouth... or for that matter... breathing.

They could not be more wrong...

Oh, they've got the guy they want; and he is exactly that. They're completely right about that part. They're getting exactly what they think they need... Exactly what they want...

The problem is, they want the wrong thing.

They're firmly convinced that so long as they can shape the image, and the message, of the Romney campaign (and later, the Romney administration); and they keep "their guy" on message, they've got a guaranteed winner.

In this, they are DANGEROUSLY incorrect.

What the RNC don't understand, is that the American people don't want, what the Republican machine wants.

They believe that, because Americans elected Republicans in preference to Democrats in the midterms; that somehow, this is a blanket approval to continue their default program "business as usual".

Oh sure, "their guy" will make the right noises about changing things, and fixing things and rolling things back... at least in the primaries; but come the general, he'll be selling himself as "the moderate" to get the center left (who are very uncomfortable with the Obama administration AND the current congress). He won't need to court the social or fiscal conservatives, or the libertarians because... after all... it's not like they're going to let Obama stay in office.

The thing is, we know this.

We're not stupid.

We're not fooled by Romney, or by their "message".

We don't want it.

In 2000, the moderate was who the American People wanted; and we got the "compassionate conservative" instead. We know that story. We're not going to repeat it.

What the American people want now, is a man of principle, and guts, who WILL reverse the current collision course with the dumpster we're on, and roll back the idiotic excesses of the current congress and administration...

...but not someone so radical that they're going to try to end social security (or for that matter change it in any meaningful way) or put in a flat tax or... well, anything radical or transformative at all really.

Note: That's not what I PERSONALLY want. I want someone who WOULD scrap social security, medicare, medicaid, and the entire tax system. I'm smart enough, self aware enough, and politically astute enough; to understand that what I want, isn't necessarily what the people as a whole wants... or even necessarily what is best for the country... though I believe it is.

They want the guy who will put things back to the way they were around 1992 or so; just, you know, winning this time.

Unfortunately for the RNC... that guy isn't running.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

How well did I handicap?


Oh... Pretty damn good all things considered...

Look at that map... it's the Urban Archipelago concept made real... 

So, a couple days ago I posted my election predictions, both on base numbers, and on key races.

Lets see how I did shall we?

First, the total numbers
+8 Republican, -0/+4 to the senate
+63 Republican, -0/+16 to the house
I'm looking pretty good here actually. Not brilliant, but not bad.

As of this moment, it's +5 to the Republicans for senate, but could still end up +8. Colorado and Washington's senate races are exactly tied up, and it could be three weeks (not including law suits) before they are resolved. Also it will be at least two weeks before all the write in votes for Alaska are processed, but it looks like Lisa Murkowski will easily retain her seat.

These races are crucial. Murkowski was a republican in the last session and has been one her entire career, but she ran this race as an independent, and has indicated that she MAY choose to caucus with the democrats. If the dems retain the other two seats, I think it's possible. If they lose those seats I think Murkowski will stick with the Republicans. That would put things officially at 49-49-2 (the "independents" Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman). In that circumstance, its entirely possible some democrats may defect and move to the Republican side of the chamber, throwing them control of the senate.

If it ends up 49-49 look for Manchin as a potential conversion either to Republican or to "independent". He's going to want to vote against Reid and Obama most of the time, and with Reid in control, that could get him punished.

On the house side, I was also pretty close; currently standing a +61 to the Republicans, with 11 races left to resolve, 9 of them most likely to go Republican. So I'm almost certainly going to make my +63, and it could go as high as +72 (though +69 or +70 is more likely).

Ok, specific predictions, how did I do?
I predict zero Republican senate seats lost, and the following as gains, or *strong maybes:
  1. Arkansas - Boozman
  2. *California - Fiorina
  3. *Colorado - Buck
  4. *Connecticut - McMahon
  5. Illinois - Kirk
  6. Indiana - Coats
  7. *Nevada - Angle
  8. North Dakota - Hoeven
  9. Penn - Toomey
  10. * Washington - Rossi
  11. West VA - Raese
  12. Wisconsin - Johnson
Damn, missed one.... There were no real Republican losses, unless you count Murkowski, who is currently sitting as a republican, and may continue to do so. I'm counting CO and WA as wins for now, but as you'll note, I had them asterisked for a reason. The three I was pretty sure the Reps wouldn't get, they didn't.

The one thing I was surprised about was Manchin vs. Raese, but frankly I count him more as a push than a loss given theres a very good chance he's going to go "independent" or even switch parties entirely.

Onto the house... again I'll code the Republican pickups as red, the democratic retains as blue, and any dem pickups I'll code green.

First thing, there will probably be two losses of Rep seats:


  1. Delaware AL - Carney
  2. Louisiana 2nd - Richmond
I don't see either as iffy right now; but I'm pretty sure those are the only losses.
Got it in one.
Now, the iffys...


  1. * Alabama 2 - Roby
  2. * Arizona 7 - McClung
  3. * California 47 - Tran
  4. * Colorado 7 - Frazier
  5. * Conn 5 - Caligiuri
  6. * Idaho 1 - Labrador
  7. * Indiana 2 - Walorski
  8. * Kentucky 6 - Barr
  9. * Minnesota 8 - Cravaack
  10. * Missouri 4 - Hartzler
  11. * North Carolina 2 - Ellmers
  12. * North Carolina 7 - Pantano
  13. * Penn 12 - Burns
  14. * Rhode Island 1 - Loughlin
  15. * Virginia 11 - Fimian
  16. * Washington 2 - Koster
The iffys were, iffy. KY6, VA11, and WA2 are still 50/50 tossups (though I expect KY6 and WA2 to go Rep); but overall, the Republicans picked seven of the iffys.
And the likely pickups:

  1. Arizona 1 - Gosar
  2. Arizona 5 - Schweikert
  3. Arizona 8 - Kelly
  4. Arkansas 1 - Crawford
  5. Arkansas 2 - Griffin
  6. California 11 - Harmer
  7. California 20 - Vidak
  8. Colorado 3 - Tipton
  9. Colorado 4 - Gardner
  10. Connecticut 4 - Debicella
  11. Florida 2 - Southerland
  12. Florida 8 - Webster
  13. Florida 22 - West
  14. Florida 24 - Adams
  15. Georgia 2 - Keown
  16. Georgia 8 - Scott
  17. Illinois 11 - Kinzinger
  18. Illinois 14 - Hultgren
  19. Illinois 17 - Schilling
  20. Indiana 8 - Buchson
  21. Indiana 9 - Young
  22. Kansas 3 - Yoder
  23. Louisiana 3 - Landry
  24. Maryland 1 - Harris
  25. Mass 10 - Perry
  26. Michigan 1 - Benishek
  27. Michigan 7 - Walberg
  28. Mississippi 1 - Nunnelee
  29. Mississippi 4 - Palazzo
  30. Nevada 3 - Heck
  31. New Hampshire 1 - Guinta
  32. New Hampshire 2 - Bass
  33. New Jersey 3 - Runyan
  34. New Mexico 1 - Barela
  35. New Mexico 2 - Pearce
  36. New York 19 - Hayworth
  37. New York 20 - Gibson
  38. New York 23 - Doheny
  39. North Carolina 8 - Johnson
  40. North Dakota AL - Berg
  41. Ohio 1 - Chabot
  42. Ohio 6 - Johnson
  43. Ohio 15 - Stivers
  44. Ohio 16 - Renacci
  45. Ohio 18 - Gibbs
  46. Oregon 5 - Bruun
  47. Penn 3 - Kelly
  48. Penn 7 - Meehan
  49. Penn 8 - Fitzpatrick
  50. Penn 10 - Marino
  51. Penn 11 - Barletta
  52. S. Carolina 5 - Mulvaney
  53. S. Dakota AL - Noem
  54. Tenn 4 - DesJarlais
  55. Tenn 6 - Black
  56. Tenn 8 - Fincher
  57. Texas 17 - Flores
  58. Texas 23 - Canseco
  59. Virginia 2 - Rigel
  60. Virginia 5 - Hurt
  61. Virginia 9 - Griffith
  62. Washington 3 - Herrero
  63. W. Virginia 1 - McKinley
  64. Wisconsin 7 - Duffy
  65. Wisconsin 8 - Ribble
If Harmer and Debicalla pull it out (they're 50/50)  will only have missed six out of 65... not bad. In addition, NY state added 13, 24, and 29 as unexpected pickups.

It really looks like a 67 seat minimum, and maybe up to a 72... amazing.

Oh and a couple interesting factoids. There are now only seven states with all democratic House contingents: Hawaii, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, and Maine... Coincidentally, excluding Maine, those are six of the eight smallest states (New Jersey and New Hampshire are the other two, Main is 11th).  There are nine with all Republican house members, and all but New Hampshire are in the 20 largest.

Of course that's geographic area, not population... but look at that map above. 

Eight of the top ten states in population, are now also represented by a HUGE geographic majority, AND either a popular majority or very close to it, AND either a district majority or very close to it (CA and NY, have a few very small geographic but high population districts that skew it) of Republicans.

If you exclude the LA basin (which has more than 20 districts) CA is by far majority Republican, even leaving in San Diego, San Jose, and San Francisco. If you take out those four metropolitan areas (geographically less than 10% of the state), California is ENTIRELY Republican with the exception of one District (around Santa Cruz). Democrats in California are pretty much limited to 50 miles from the coast, in cities with populations over a million.

In New York state, right about half the land area went red. So did just under half the population as a whole. If it weren't for 2 points (3500 votes), NY23, which itself is about 1/4 the land area of the state, would have gone red.

In Florida, only six of 25 districts are Blue.

In NJ, half the districts went red (well, 6 of 13) more than 3/4 of the land area, and about half the population, went red.

In Ohio, only six of 18 districts stayed blue, and now more than 2/3 the population are represented by Republicans. 

In Michigan, only Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint stayed blue.

In Illinois, 11 of 19 districts comprising 80% of the states land area went red. Outside of the immediate Chicago metropolitan area, only 1 district is still Dem.

In Minnesota only 4 out of 8 districts are still blue.

In Oregon, 2/3 the land area is red, though that's only 1 district... I've mentioned before, if it isn't along I5 the pols in Oregon don't know it exists.

This is one that tickles me the most... Washington State, 5 out of 9 districts representing more than 3/4 the land area and almost 1/2 the population, are now Republican


In fact, of the top 20 states in population, only California, New York, Massachusetts, and Maryland don't now have either a majority, parity, or plurality of  Republican representation.  In the top 30, only Oregon and Connecticut get added to that list.

In all,. 39 states have majority, parity, or plurality Republican representation. Of the remaining 11, states, only CA, NY and MA are individually electorally significant; and together those 11 states don't have sufficient electoral votes to elect a president (just about half actually) and most of them are going to be losing at least one electoral vote each, some will lose two votes.  

That's going to make the upcoming redistricting very interesting... and then, 2012 

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Majority Math

Ok, so I'm hearing a lot of noise from people on the right and libertarian side of the aisles that "the dems are going to lose everything this election and we can undo everything Obama has destroyed yaaaay!!!!"

Yeah... No. Not Gonna Happen.

Oh, I agree the dems will lose huge, but I doubt they'll lose enough to lose control completely.

In fact, realistically it's a mathematical impossibility in the senate for them to lose too badly; as there aren't enough seats up for reelection that have a serious challenge mounted against them.

note: I'mna highlight the magic numbers for this post so you don't need to wade through the text if you just feel like skimming. 

Right now the senate is 59-41 dem counting the two "independents".

There are 36 seats up this year. Twelve are widely considered dead locks for the incumbents, leaving 24 "competitive" seats.

Six republicans and five democrats are retiring and one each were defeated in primary challenges, putting eleven seats in play without an incumbent.

The Republicans are going to lose at least one of those six seats because popular republicans are retiring from otherwise democratic states and their potential replacements are not doing particularly well, maybe two or three because of split voting in Florida, problems in Missouri and Kentucky with the Republican candidates, primary problems in Ohio and Kansas etc...

At this point, Ohio looks like it's going Democrat, and Missouri is an absolute tossup, and they really shouldn't be.

Florida has the Republican support split two ways, with the popular republican governor (who would almost certainly win the election in a walkaway if he were the Republican candidate but wasn't sure he could win the Republican primary against a hard right opponent) running as an independent. These are real problems for the Republicans electorally.

Basically in every one of the states where the Republican senator is retiring, the Republican candidates are killing each other in the primaries, or in the media (or are killing themselves in the media).

It seems likely, at least one and maybe as many of three of those are going to end up a loss.

On the retiring dem seats, they'll likely hold Connecticut because the Republicans (including Linda McMahon of WWE wrestling fame) are killing each other in the primaries. The dems are likely to hold Illinois with Giannoulas, though just barely and probably only by playing Chicago ball. At this point Delaware looks like a win for the Republicans. Indiana is almost certainly going Republican, as is North Dakota.

So let's call that a net pickup of 2 for the Republicans.

There was one primary defeat on the dem side, Arlen Specter. Pat Toomey is almost certainly going to win that one for the Republicans, but not by much.

There was one primary defeat on the Republican side, but it's in Utah. That seat is going to a Republican. Even though there are some major issues with the candidates at this point, the dem candidate barely registers on the polls.

Net pickup of 3.

That leaves eleven incumbent races as "competitive", five dem and six republican:

Boozman is going to CRUSH Lincoln in Arkansas for a Republican switch.

Right now, Colorado is hard to call, but it's looking like a switch to republican.

Reid is in deep trouble in Nevada, but he has a TON more money, and he's only behind by 2-3 points... I think he keeps his seat.

Washington state is a total tossup between Rossi and Murray... It could stay or it could switch, but for now favor the incumbent.

Wisconsin also a dead heat, but Feingold is likely to keep his seat as he's one of the DNCs most important defensive moves.

On the Republican side, I don't see any of the so called "competitive seats" losing right now.

Call that a net pickup of 2.

 So that's a likely net pickup of 5 total for a 54-46 Senate. I think that's the most likely scenario, and that it's highly unlikely it will be any worse for the Republicans.

In order to get a majority, they need a net pickup of 10.

Even if the Republicans don't lose a single seat that's a net of  6.

If they don't lose a single seat and pick up all the tossups, that would be a net pickup of 11 (for a 52 to 48 senate), but that's NOT going to happen. I think a best case scenario is a net pickup of 9.

Of course, a net of 9 gives us a deadlocked senate.

On the house side, it's a different story. Right now, it's 256 to 179 dem, needing a swing of 39 seats to swap hands.

That's definitely going to happen. There is no sane person, currently paying attention, who reasonably believes the dems are going to lose less than 39 net seats. Nancy Pelosi is almost literally screaming from the rooftops that no, they are going to keep control, but it's just noise.

The dems are going down hard in the house. They're going to pick up maybe 2 or 3 races from Republicans, and lose as many as 106.

They're definitely losing at least 50; even the DNC thinks that's the minimum (and are already allocating money based on that conception). They are internally estimating a more realistic number at around 70-80 net lost seats. The white house press secretary just said they thought it could be as many as 100 net lost.

There are currently about 150 "safe" dem seats, and 165 "safe" republican seats; and it looks like the dems will lose most if not all their 106 seats in serious contention.

If the dems are LUCKY, under the most optimistic projections right now, they'll hold on to 200 seats, giving the Republicans a 35 seat majority.

Oh and of course, as usual, there isn't a single realistic chance that anyone other than a Democrat, Republican or "Independent" who is really one or the other but for some reason couldn't win under their proper label (unless you count Rand Paul... I don't. Bernie Sanders isn't up for election this year. He's really a socialist, but runs as independent).

What that means however, is that  under no realistic scenario, will the Republicans get a 2/3 majority in either house, which is what it would take to undo at least some of the Obama damage.

You've got to get veto proof, and fillibuster proof, in both houses; to start repealing and fixing the damage, and that's just not going to happen.

Believe me, while there are dissenter Democrats tolerated right now, the Democratic party leadership will expel people from the party before it lets them side with the Republicans against Obama when they end up in the minority.

Oh and of course, the whole premise rests on the idea that if they get in with a big enough majority, the Republicans will actually FIX anything; rather than just finding new and different ways to break everything EVEN MORE.