Wednesday, February 01, 2012

So, 9 months out, my prediction for the 2012 election

So, some of y'all might have noticed that we're having an election this year.

You know, like anyone who isn't actually dead and buried (and even then, if you're in Chicago...).

Given that it's just about 9 months out (next Tuesday to be exact), I figure it's time to gestate a prediction on the election.

As of now, this is the state of the countries presidential preference, according to the various polls being used by (a site which has proven in the past two election to be somewhat left biased in their poll selection, so if anything it's probably a little stronger for republicans):

I disagree with some of those being listed as swing states. I think there's about ZERO chance that Virginia, South Carolina, New Hampshire, or Florida, will be voting Obama this year, and Pennsylvania is so Anti-Obama they may actually drag him down in other sates.

Oh and Obama is only polling significantly over 50% (as in out of the margin of error) in TWO states right now.

Which two?

New York and Hawaii.

Even California, Minnesota, and Massachusetts are all at 50% or so. EVERY other state is below 50% support for Obama. Even New Jersey. Pennsylvania is down to about 35% support for Obama.

Yes, my prediction here is assuming the undecideds break almost entirely against Obama, but I believe that's exactly what is going to happen in most states.

So, here's my guess for the final result:

I'm pretty confident that, presuming nothing insane, ridiculous, heinous etc... happens between now and november, that I will come within 20 votes, and I am moderately confident that I'll be within 10 (the only state I see as particularly iffy here is New Mexico).

Oh and for anyone holding out hope for a miracle, or a revolution... stop, please. It's not going to happen, and it's just making Obamas chances better. The republican party nominee IS Mitt Romney.

Not "will be" or "might be"... IS.

Ron Paul is never going to be on a Republican presidential ticket. Nor Newt, nor Santorum or any of the other sideshow candidates (yes, I choose that word deliberately).

Get over it, and get used to voting for "not Obama".