Everything in the entire material universe, is circles, squares, lines and arcs.
If you can rotate one piece and hold another piece completely still against it to cut it or grind it, you can make anything perfectly round and concentric.
Once you get a set of four pieces perfectly round, concentric, and identical, you can find perfect level.
Once you can make four pieces perfectly round, concentric, and level, you can take a piece and make one surface perfectly flat.
Once you can make one surface perfectly flat and level, you can make a second surface perfectly perpendicular to it, and perfectly flat and level.
Once you can make two surfaces perfectly flat, level, and perpendicular to each other you can always find 90 degrees.
Once you can make things perfectly round and concentric, and make two surfaces perfectly flat and perpendicular to each other, you can make anything flat and square on all sides.
Once you know one exact measurement... all you need to do is hold it up to something else you know the size of... and can make something flat, square, perpendicular, and level on all sides, then you can always find a 45 degree angle.
Once you can make something flat and square on all sides, and you can always find a 45 degree angle, you can make anything flat, square, and true on all sides.
Once you can find an exact measurement, and exact 90 and 45 degree angles, you can always find the center of any measurement, and you can always double any measurement.
Once you can halve and double any measurement, find 90 and 45 degrees, and find the center of any measurement, you can find any measurement at all.
Once you can find 90 degrees, 45 degrees, and any measurement at all, you can find any angle at all.
Once you can make something round, concentric, flat, square and true, and can find any measurement and any angle, you can make any spiral or helix you want, and thus, cut any screw thread or gear you want.
Once you cut four threads and four gears to act against each other, you can double the precision of your threads and gears.
Once you can find any measurement, and the center of any measurement, and can find 90 degrees, and 45 degrees, and any angle at all... and can halve and double them... you can double the precision of your measurements... and redouble them to any degree of precision.
Once you can double the precision of your measurements, and the precision of your threads and gears, you can make anything round, concentric, flat, square, and true at double precision.
Once you can make four flat, square, and true objects at double precision, and four round and concentric flat and shafts at double precision, you can double it again...
Then you can double the precision of your threads and gears again, and redouble, and redouble, to any degree of precision.
...and by doubling, redoubling, and halving, and quartering, over and over, you can find any measurement, of any line, at any degree of precision, and make anything round, concentric, flat, and square to any degree of precision.
Once you can find any measurement, at any degree of precision, and can always find the center, 90 and 45 degrees, you can find any angle, to any degree of precision.
Once you can find always find endpoints, and center points of any line, any measurement, and any angle, at any degree of precision, you can describe any arc, at any degree of precision.
... and cut any screw or gear, at any degree of precision.
Once you can make anything round, concentric, flat, square, true, and level, find any measurement and any angle, cut any screw and any gear, and describe any arc, at any precision...
... you can make anything at all...
This is how the entire industrial world developed, and how everything is still made today...
Everything... everything manufactured piece, every machine, everything in this modern world... begins with the lathe.
Showing posts with label Math. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Math. Show all posts
Friday, May 20, 2016
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Majority Math
Ok, so I'm hearing a lot of noise from people on the right and libertarian side of the aisles that "the dems are going to lose everything this election and we can undo everything Obama has destroyed yaaaay!!!!"
Yeah... No. Not Gonna Happen.
Oh, I agree the dems will lose huge, but I doubt they'll lose enough to lose control completely.
In fact, realistically it's a mathematical impossibility in the senate for them to lose too badly; as there aren't enough seats up for reelection that have a serious challenge mounted against them.
note: I'mna highlight the magic numbers for this post so you don't need to wade through the text if you just feel like skimming.
Right now the senate is 59-41 dem counting the two "independents".
There are 36 seats up this year. Twelve are widely considered dead locks for the incumbents, leaving 24 "competitive" seats.
Six republicans and five democrats are retiring and one each were defeated in primary challenges, putting eleven seats in play without an incumbent.
The Republicans are going to lose at least one of those six seats because popular republicans are retiring from otherwise democratic states and their potential replacements are not doing particularly well, maybe two or three because of split voting in Florida, problems in Missouri and Kentucky with the Republican candidates, primary problems in Ohio and Kansas etc...
At this point, Ohio looks like it's going Democrat, and Missouri is an absolute tossup, and they really shouldn't be.
Florida has the Republican support split two ways, with the popular republican governor (who would almost certainly win the election in a walkaway if he were the Republican candidate but wasn't sure he could win the Republican primary against a hard right opponent) running as an independent. These are real problems for the Republicans electorally.
Basically in every one of the states where the Republican senator is retiring, the Republican candidates are killing each other in the primaries, or in the media (or are killing themselves in the media).
It seems likely, at least one and maybe as many of three of those are going to end up a loss.
On the retiring dem seats, they'll likely hold Connecticut because the Republicans (including Linda McMahon of WWE wrestling fame) are killing each other in the primaries. The dems are likely to hold Illinois with Giannoulas, though just barely and probably only by playing Chicago ball. At this point Delaware looks like a win for the Republicans. Indiana is almost certainly going Republican, as is North Dakota.
So let's call that a net pickup of 2 for the Republicans.
There was one primary defeat on the dem side, Arlen Specter. Pat Toomey is almost certainly going to win that one for the Republicans, but not by much.
There was one primary defeat on the Republican side, but it's in Utah. That seat is going to a Republican. Even though there are some major issues with the candidates at this point, the dem candidate barely registers on the polls.
Net pickup of 3.
That leaves eleven incumbent races as "competitive", five dem and six republican:
Boozman is going to CRUSH Lincoln in Arkansas for a Republican switch.
Right now, Colorado is hard to call, but it's looking like a switch to republican.
Reid is in deep trouble in Nevada, but he has a TON more money, and he's only behind by 2-3 points... I think he keeps his seat.
Washington state is a total tossup between Rossi and Murray... It could stay or it could switch, but for now favor the incumbent.
Wisconsin also a dead heat, but Feingold is likely to keep his seat as he's one of the DNCs most important defensive moves.
On the Republican side, I don't see any of the so called "competitive seats" losing right now.
So that's a likely net pickup of 5 total for a 54-46 Senate. I think that's the most likely scenario, and that it's highly unlikely it will be any worse for the Republicans.
In order to get a majority, they need a net pickup of 10.
Even if the Republicans don't lose a single seat that's a net of 6.
If they don't lose a single seat and pick up all the tossups, that would be a net pickup of 11 (for a 52 to 48 senate), but that's NOT going to happen. I think a best case scenario is a net pickup of 9.
Of course, a net of 9 gives us a deadlocked senate.
On the house side, it's a different story. Right now, it's 256 to 179 dem, needing a swing of 39 seats to swap hands.
That's definitely going to happen. There is no sane person, currently paying attention, who reasonably believes the dems are going to lose less than 39 net seats. Nancy Pelosi is almost literally screaming from the rooftops that no, they are going to keep control, but it's just noise.
The dems are going down hard in the house. They're going to pick up maybe 2 or 3 races from Republicans, and lose as many as 106.
They're definitely losing at least 50; even the DNC thinks that's the minimum (and are already allocating money based on that conception). They are internally estimating a more realistic number at around 70-80 net lost seats. The white house press secretary just said they thought it could be as many as 100 net lost.
There are currently about 150 "safe" dem seats, and 165 "safe" republican seats; and it looks like the dems will lose most if not all their 106 seats in serious contention.
If the dems are LUCKY, under the most optimistic projections right now, they'll hold on to 200 seats, giving the Republicans a 35 seat majority.
Oh and of course, as usual, there isn't a single realistic chance that anyone other than a Democrat, Republican or "Independent" who is really one or the other but for some reason couldn't win under their proper label (unless you count Rand Paul... I don't. Bernie Sanders isn't up for election this year. He's really a socialist, but runs as independent).
What that means however, is that under no realistic scenario, will the Republicans get a 2/3 majority in either house, which is what it would take to undo at least some of the Obama damage.
You've got to get veto proof, and fillibuster proof, in both houses; to start repealing and fixing the damage, and that's just not going to happen.
Believe me, while there are dissenter Democrats tolerated right now, the Democratic party leadership will expel people from the party before it lets them side with the Republicans against Obama when they end up in the minority.
Oh and of course, the whole premise rests on the idea that if they get in with a big enough majority, the Republicans will actually FIX anything; rather than just finding new and different ways to break everything EVEN MORE.
Yeah... No. Not Gonna Happen.
Oh, I agree the dems will lose huge, but I doubt they'll lose enough to lose control completely.
In fact, realistically it's a mathematical impossibility in the senate for them to lose too badly; as there aren't enough seats up for reelection that have a serious challenge mounted against them.
note: I'mna highlight the magic numbers for this post so you don't need to wade through the text if you just feel like skimming.
Right now the senate is 59-41 dem counting the two "independents".
There are 36 seats up this year. Twelve are widely considered dead locks for the incumbents, leaving 24 "competitive" seats.
Six republicans and five democrats are retiring and one each were defeated in primary challenges, putting eleven seats in play without an incumbent.
The Republicans are going to lose at least one of those six seats because popular republicans are retiring from otherwise democratic states and their potential replacements are not doing particularly well, maybe two or three because of split voting in Florida, problems in Missouri and Kentucky with the Republican candidates, primary problems in Ohio and Kansas etc...
At this point, Ohio looks like it's going Democrat, and Missouri is an absolute tossup, and they really shouldn't be.
Florida has the Republican support split two ways, with the popular republican governor (who would almost certainly win the election in a walkaway if he were the Republican candidate but wasn't sure he could win the Republican primary against a hard right opponent) running as an independent. These are real problems for the Republicans electorally.
Basically in every one of the states where the Republican senator is retiring, the Republican candidates are killing each other in the primaries, or in the media (or are killing themselves in the media).
It seems likely, at least one and maybe as many of three of those are going to end up a loss.
On the retiring dem seats, they'll likely hold Connecticut because the Republicans (including Linda McMahon of WWE wrestling fame) are killing each other in the primaries. The dems are likely to hold Illinois with Giannoulas, though just barely and probably only by playing Chicago ball. At this point Delaware looks like a win for the Republicans. Indiana is almost certainly going Republican, as is North Dakota.
So let's call that a net pickup of 2 for the Republicans.
There was one primary defeat on the dem side, Arlen Specter. Pat Toomey is almost certainly going to win that one for the Republicans, but not by much.
There was one primary defeat on the Republican side, but it's in Utah. That seat is going to a Republican. Even though there are some major issues with the candidates at this point, the dem candidate barely registers on the polls.
That leaves eleven incumbent races as "competitive", five dem and six republican:
Boozman is going to CRUSH Lincoln in Arkansas for a Republican switch.
Right now, Colorado is hard to call, but it's looking like a switch to republican.
Reid is in deep trouble in Nevada, but he has a TON more money, and he's only behind by 2-3 points... I think he keeps his seat.
Washington state is a total tossup between Rossi and Murray... It could stay or it could switch, but for now favor the incumbent.
Wisconsin also a dead heat, but Feingold is likely to keep his seat as he's one of the DNCs most important defensive moves.
On the Republican side, I don't see any of the so called "competitive seats" losing right now.
Call that a net pickup of 2.
So that's a likely net pickup of 5 total for a 54-46 Senate. I think that's the most likely scenario, and that it's highly unlikely it will be any worse for the Republicans.
In order to get a majority, they need a net pickup of 10.
Even if the Republicans don't lose a single seat that's a net of 6.
If they don't lose a single seat and pick up all the tossups, that would be a net pickup of 11 (for a 52 to 48 senate), but that's NOT going to happen. I think a best case scenario is a net pickup of 9.
Of course, a net of 9 gives us a deadlocked senate.
On the house side, it's a different story. Right now, it's 256 to 179 dem, needing a swing of 39 seats to swap hands.
That's definitely going to happen. There is no sane person, currently paying attention, who reasonably believes the dems are going to lose less than 39 net seats. Nancy Pelosi is almost literally screaming from the rooftops that no, they are going to keep control, but it's just noise.
The dems are going down hard in the house. They're going to pick up maybe 2 or 3 races from Republicans, and lose as many as 106.
They're definitely losing at least 50; even the DNC thinks that's the minimum (and are already allocating money based on that conception). They are internally estimating a more realistic number at around 70-80 net lost seats. The white house press secretary just said they thought it could be as many as 100 net lost.
There are currently about 150 "safe" dem seats, and 165 "safe" republican seats; and it looks like the dems will lose most if not all their 106 seats in serious contention.
If the dems are LUCKY, under the most optimistic projections right now, they'll hold on to 200 seats, giving the Republicans a 35 seat majority.
Oh and of course, as usual, there isn't a single realistic chance that anyone other than a Democrat, Republican or "Independent" who is really one or the other but for some reason couldn't win under their proper label (unless you count Rand Paul... I don't. Bernie Sanders isn't up for election this year. He's really a socialist, but runs as independent).
What that means however, is that under no realistic scenario, will the Republicans get a 2/3 majority in either house, which is what it would take to undo at least some of the Obama damage.
You've got to get veto proof, and fillibuster proof, in both houses; to start repealing and fixing the damage, and that's just not going to happen.
Believe me, while there are dissenter Democrats tolerated right now, the Democratic party leadership will expel people from the party before it lets them side with the Republicans against Obama when they end up in the minority.
Oh and of course, the whole premise rests on the idea that if they get in with a big enough majority, the Republicans will actually FIX anything; rather than just finding new and different ways to break everything EVEN MORE.
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