No hesitation, Stephen Fry....
Only not gay...
Or manic depressive...
Or english...
Or an actor...
But everything else, yup, like Stephen Fry.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The Longest War
In my veterans day post, I wrote a couple paragraphs about how I believe that Europe has never really recovered from World War I:
I have a political theory, that I've been working on for quite some time, and have spoken about at great length in other formats (usually long conversations with other military and political history geeks).
The theory is, roughly, this:
Western civilization has been engaged in what is essentially a single long and continuous war; with periodic truces, breaks, and returns to conflict; since at least 1618, with the 30 years war.
This single long war has been generational, and transformational, in its nature and impact. It has shaped every aspect of western civilization since it began. All the major political developments in our civilization since that time have either been initiated by this war, greatly strengthened by it, destroyed by it, were in reaction to it, or were otherwise significantly effected by it.
The 17th through 19th century wars of European dominance and succession were clearly related to the 30 years war. These wars led to the early liberty oriented revolutions (which were essentially reactionary to the excesses of the jockeying for european position). They also led directly up to napoleonic wars (which are properly taken separeately from the small "local" wars of the time), the crimean war, the boer war, and the various austro-hungarian-prussian wars of the middle to late 19th century (and indirectly the U.S. civil war, which was almost inevitable given the compromise that went into the formation of the United States).
These of course clearly led into world war 1, which further led into world war 2, the cold war, the korean and vietnam wars, both gulf wars, and even the "war on terror"... which is actually in itself a direct aftermath of world war 1, and the crimean war before it.
Essentially, I consider the 30 years war to be the first "world war" of the modern era (meaning the post renaissance period); and that all major conflicts since are strongly related to it.
Now the problem with a blog format in discussing this theory, is that I would need to write something on the order of 100,000 words to completely cover it... and perhaps 40,000 just to set out the bare outlines and minimum necessary filling in.
That said, I bet there are a bunch of my fellow military and history geeks reading this and thinking "he's crazy, and here's why" or "he's onto something, and here's why". With them, I can use shorthand; because they know what I'm referring to, and the context behind it.
That would be a very fun conversation for us geeks to have (and it has been, many times over) but it would most likely bore the pants off of most of my readers.
Also, I'd love to write it, and I may; but if I do it is going to have to be written as an honest to god book.
No-one may want to publish it; it is after all a somewhat obscure branch of military history and political science; but it deserves to have a book written about it anyway.
A reader commented that I was perhaps being harsh, and that europeans were probably just as happy as Americans are... which I also disagree with; but more importantly he missed my larger point. Though honestly it's not his fault since I wasn't being very clear about it.
"Britain, France, Belgium, Canada, Australia, Russia... and on the other side Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary (and the remains of the holy roman empire), Turkey (and the other ottomans)... an entire generation of young men in Europe were lost to the most futile, worst run war, in modern history.
In four years, 18 million men died (or went missing, which is mostly the same thing), and 22 million men were wounded.
In fact, Europe has never recovered from this greatest of historical mistakes. It was the direct aftermath of world war one that lead to world war two; which created the postmodern European culture that is slowly being destroyed from without and within by self hatred, depression, defeatism, socialism, and Islamic fascism..."
I have a political theory, that I've been working on for quite some time, and have spoken about at great length in other formats (usually long conversations with other military and political history geeks).
The theory is, roughly, this:
Western civilization has been engaged in what is essentially a single long and continuous war; with periodic truces, breaks, and returns to conflict; since at least 1618, with the 30 years war.
This single long war has been generational, and transformational, in its nature and impact. It has shaped every aspect of western civilization since it began. All the major political developments in our civilization since that time have either been initiated by this war, greatly strengthened by it, destroyed by it, were in reaction to it, or were otherwise significantly effected by it.
The 17th through 19th century wars of European dominance and succession were clearly related to the 30 years war. These wars led to the early liberty oriented revolutions (which were essentially reactionary to the excesses of the jockeying for european position). They also led directly up to napoleonic wars (which are properly taken separeately from the small "local" wars of the time), the crimean war, the boer war, and the various austro-hungarian-prussian wars of the middle to late 19th century (and indirectly the U.S. civil war, which was almost inevitable given the compromise that went into the formation of the United States).
These of course clearly led into world war 1, which further led into world war 2, the cold war, the korean and vietnam wars, both gulf wars, and even the "war on terror"... which is actually in itself a direct aftermath of world war 1, and the crimean war before it.
Essentially, I consider the 30 years war to be the first "world war" of the modern era (meaning the post renaissance period); and that all major conflicts since are strongly related to it.
Now the problem with a blog format in discussing this theory, is that I would need to write something on the order of 100,000 words to completely cover it... and perhaps 40,000 just to set out the bare outlines and minimum necessary filling in.
That said, I bet there are a bunch of my fellow military and history geeks reading this and thinking "he's crazy, and here's why" or "he's onto something, and here's why". With them, I can use shorthand; because they know what I'm referring to, and the context behind it.
That would be a very fun conversation for us geeks to have (and it has been, many times over) but it would most likely bore the pants off of most of my readers.
Also, I'd love to write it, and I may; but if I do it is going to have to be written as an honest to god book.
No-one may want to publish it; it is after all a somewhat obscure branch of military history and political science; but it deserves to have a book written about it anyway.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Second Annual Pistol Challenge for Charity
Last year, In order to add a little extra incentive to the Project Valour-IT fundraising challenge; and I had a reverse auction for a pistol.
Last year we auctioned an FEG PA-63, which is a perfectly decent little pistol; but not exactly a world beater.
We managed to raise about $5,000 through our little part of the challenge; and this year we need even more money, in less time, so I decided to up the ante a bit.
This year, we're auctioning off a SIG P6.
So, this is how it works. Anyone who donates to ANY of the teams during the fundraiser, send me a copy of your PayPal donation receipt for at least $150 (which I will verify with the folks at Soldiers Angels); and the person who donates the most, will win one of these, along with 2 magazines, a holster, and a set of custom wood grips:
I was going to refinish it, and put a set of night sights on it, but there was such vehement disagreement as to what finish to use, and what sights to put on it, that I decided to just leave it up to the winner.
The pistol the winner receives will be a former west german police issue pistol. It is in arsenal rebuilt condition, and was purchase from J&G sales, with a two magazines, a box, original paperwork, and a West German Motor Officers holster.
Obviously, due to the wonderful ATF, unless you are in Arizona, this pistol will need to be transferred from my FFL to yours; but I will cover the shipping. If you happen to live in Arizona I will handle this as a private transfer. Unfortunately for you crufflers out there, these pistols are not C&R eligible.
I hate to limit the pool of potential winners, but I'm not sure if this would be legal to transfer to someone in California and Massachusetts (because they have "approved" lists), or any of the states that require a special permit for every pistol you purchase (New Jersey and Hawaii for example); but it doesn't have any of the nasty "assault weapon" features that would get it banned in some states . If it is legal, hey great; ask your FFL to make sure.
Also note, this pistol would not be received from, transferred from, or won from Valour IT or soldiers angels; it would be coming from me, Chris Byrne.
This is my PERSONAL incentive to anyone who supports a charity I also support.
No-one at Valour IT or Soldiers Angels is in any way involved in this little giveaway. So, if some anti-gun lunatic wants to get all pissy, they can come talk to me about it, not Valour IT.
Personally, I know what my readers like, and that's guns; so I'm tailoring my challenge to the preferences of my readers. It's called "effective marketing".
I will accept receipts for donations occuring up until midnight November 30th/December first 2008; and announce the winner Monday December first at 5pm local time; so get me your reciepts before midnight.
I will accept multiple donations and count them together so long as they occurred during the fundraiser (including if they were dated before this post) . In the event of a tie (which I think is likely), the winner will be determined by whose donation (or whose latest donation to bring them up to total) is dated first (not necessarily who I receive them from first). Oh and I'm only counting down to the nearest $10 increment rounded down. I don't expect people to be parsing pennies for charity.
So, donate to a great cause. It's completely tax deductible, and maybe you'll get a gun out of the deal at the same time. Can't lose there folks. Please, donate if you can:
Last year we auctioned an FEG PA-63, which is a perfectly decent little pistol; but not exactly a world beater.
We managed to raise about $5,000 through our little part of the challenge; and this year we need even more money, in less time, so I decided to up the ante a bit.
This year, we're auctioning off a SIG P6.
So, this is how it works. Anyone who donates to ANY of the teams during the fundraiser, send me a copy of your PayPal donation receipt for at least $150 (which I will verify with the folks at Soldiers Angels); and the person who donates the most, will win one of these, along with 2 magazines, a holster, and a set of custom wood grips:
I was going to refinish it, and put a set of night sights on it, but there was such vehement disagreement as to what finish to use, and what sights to put on it, that I decided to just leave it up to the winner.
The pistol the winner receives will be a former west german police issue pistol. It is in arsenal rebuilt condition, and was purchase from J&G sales, with a two magazines, a box, original paperwork, and a West German Motor Officers holster.
Obviously, due to the wonderful ATF, unless you are in Arizona, this pistol will need to be transferred from my FFL to yours; but I will cover the shipping. If you happen to live in Arizona I will handle this as a private transfer. Unfortunately for you crufflers out there, these pistols are not C&R eligible.
I hate to limit the pool of potential winners, but I'm not sure if this would be legal to transfer to someone in California and Massachusetts (because they have "approved" lists), or any of the states that require a special permit for every pistol you purchase (New Jersey and Hawaii for example); but it doesn't have any of the nasty "assault weapon" features that would get it banned in some states . If it is legal, hey great; ask your FFL to make sure.
Also note, this pistol would not be received from, transferred from, or won from Valour IT or soldiers angels; it would be coming from me, Chris Byrne.
This is my PERSONAL incentive to anyone who supports a charity I also support.
No-one at Valour IT or Soldiers Angels is in any way involved in this little giveaway. So, if some anti-gun lunatic wants to get all pissy, they can come talk to me about it, not Valour IT.
Personally, I know what my readers like, and that's guns; so I'm tailoring my challenge to the preferences of my readers. It's called "effective marketing".
I will accept receipts for donations occuring up until midnight November 30th/December first 2008; and announce the winner Monday December first at 5pm local time; so get me your reciepts before midnight.
I will accept multiple donations and count them together so long as they occurred during the fundraiser (including if they were dated before this post) . In the event of a tie (which I think is likely), the winner will be determined by whose donation (or whose latest donation to bring them up to total) is dated first (not necessarily who I receive them from first). Oh and I'm only counting down to the nearest $10 increment rounded down. I don't expect people to be parsing pennies for charity.
So, donate to a great cause. It's completely tax deductible, and maybe you'll get a gun out of the deal at the same time. Can't lose there folks. Please, donate if you can:
Active Minds means Saved Lives
"Greater love hath no man than this; that a man lay down his life for his friends" -- John 15:13
In June of 2005, then Captain (now Major) Charles "Chuck" Ziegenfuss, led an armored patrol in force into an Iraqi town where intelligence had indicated an ambush of U.S. forces was planned.
On arriving in the town, Cpt. Ziegenfuss was approached by a local resident, and informed of a large IED that was placed near his house overnight. Because his tank could not cross a bridge over a small irrigation canal to enter the town, Cpt. Ziegenfuss dismounted, and was proceeding on foot to investigate; when a second IED that had been previously buried under the roadway was detonated.
Cpt. Ziegenfuss was blown several meters into the canal; suffering severe shrapnel wounds over almost the entirety of his body excepting where he was protected by armor. He also lost half of one hand, part of the other, and much of the skin and muscle on his arms and legs to the blast.
I'm proud to say I know Chuck, and I've shot with him (he's a damn fine shot even still). He's a funny guy, with a hell of a lot of guts. A lot of other folks would've said "Well, I've had enough now"... but that just isn't the kind of guy he is. He's back on active duty, instructing ROTC cadets in his home state of Pennsylvania, and he plans on staying on active duty until they kick him out.
When Chuck was in the hospital recovering from his wounds (I should note, it's been three years and he is still in recovery; though he has been back on active duty since 2006); he figured something out: What he really wanted most, to help him get through the pain, and the boredom, and the mind numbing misery that is an extended hospital stay... was a laptop.
Thing is though, Chuck had two half hands, both wrapped in bandages. How was he going to use a laptop?
Well, he's not a quitter (there's an understatement). He had an idea, and he asked Soldiers Angels to help him out. Could they get him a laptop, with voice command software installed on it, so he could run the thing without using his hands much?
The Soldiers Angels motto is "Let no soldier go unloved", and these people move mountains, at great personal cost in time, energy, and money; to make sure that every soldier gets what they need to help them get through their times of hardship.
Turns out, the Angels more than lived up to their reputation, and they could indeed get Chuck a laptop, and they did, and it worked. He was able to keep his mind active, and keep communicating with the world at large even while he was laid up.
In fact, it was such an improvement to his morale, that he was able to (in fact he damn near forced them to) reduce his pain medication. So long as he could keep his mind occupied with other things, his pain didn't seem to matter as much.
Now, at this point, you might have got the notion that Chuck isn't one to lay down, even when he's lost 30lbs of muscle and bone, and is on enough morphine to kill a horse.
See, he figured, that if a voice activated laptop did so much for him, why couldn't they do this for other wounded soldiers. So he pitched the idea to Soldiers Angels; and Project Valour IT was born.
Voice Activated Laptops for Our Injured Troops - Valour IT.
Valour IT buys laptop computers, and accessibility accessories for wounded soldiers. Be they wounded in combat or training, if they need a laptop, and Valor IT has the money, they're getting a laptop and everything they need to make it work.
...If they have the money.
So far, Valour IT has raised enough to give over 1500 laptops to our wounded soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines; but there are more wounded men and women that could use our help.
So, just to keep this in the military spirit (and to use our rivalry to best effect), they have an annual interservice fundraising drive; with teams from and supporting each of the services competing to raise the most cash for the cause.
One should note, all the money ends up being used for ALL service members; the money raised by the Air Force team doesn't go only to Airmen. It's just a way of having a little fun while raising money for a good cause.
This is a standard, tax deductible charitable donation, and I can't imagine a better cause. All my charitable giving for the last two years, and for the foreseeable future (excepting that going to my parish), is going to Valour IT; and I ask you to please help in any way you can.
In June of 2005, then Captain (now Major) Charles "Chuck" Ziegenfuss, led an armored patrol in force into an Iraqi town where intelligence had indicated an ambush of U.S. forces was planned.
On arriving in the town, Cpt. Ziegenfuss was approached by a local resident, and informed of a large IED that was placed near his house overnight. Because his tank could not cross a bridge over a small irrigation canal to enter the town, Cpt. Ziegenfuss dismounted, and was proceeding on foot to investigate; when a second IED that had been previously buried under the roadway was detonated.
Cpt. Ziegenfuss was blown several meters into the canal; suffering severe shrapnel wounds over almost the entirety of his body excepting where he was protected by armor. He also lost half of one hand, part of the other, and much of the skin and muscle on his arms and legs to the blast.
I'm proud to say I know Chuck, and I've shot with him (he's a damn fine shot even still). He's a funny guy, with a hell of a lot of guts. A lot of other folks would've said "Well, I've had enough now"... but that just isn't the kind of guy he is. He's back on active duty, instructing ROTC cadets in his home state of Pennsylvania, and he plans on staying on active duty until they kick him out.
When Chuck was in the hospital recovering from his wounds (I should note, it's been three years and he is still in recovery; though he has been back on active duty since 2006); he figured something out: What he really wanted most, to help him get through the pain, and the boredom, and the mind numbing misery that is an extended hospital stay... was a laptop.
Thing is though, Chuck had two half hands, both wrapped in bandages. How was he going to use a laptop?
Well, he's not a quitter (there's an understatement). He had an idea, and he asked Soldiers Angels to help him out. Could they get him a laptop, with voice command software installed on it, so he could run the thing without using his hands much?
The Soldiers Angels motto is "Let no soldier go unloved", and these people move mountains, at great personal cost in time, energy, and money; to make sure that every soldier gets what they need to help them get through their times of hardship.
Turns out, the Angels more than lived up to their reputation, and they could indeed get Chuck a laptop, and they did, and it worked. He was able to keep his mind active, and keep communicating with the world at large even while he was laid up.
In fact, it was such an improvement to his morale, that he was able to (in fact he damn near forced them to) reduce his pain medication. So long as he could keep his mind occupied with other things, his pain didn't seem to matter as much.
Now, at this point, you might have got the notion that Chuck isn't one to lay down, even when he's lost 30lbs of muscle and bone, and is on enough morphine to kill a horse.
See, he figured, that if a voice activated laptop did so much for him, why couldn't they do this for other wounded soldiers. So he pitched the idea to Soldiers Angels; and Project Valour IT was born.
Voice Activated Laptops for Our Injured Troops - Valour IT.
Valour IT buys laptop computers, and accessibility accessories for wounded soldiers. Be they wounded in combat or training, if they need a laptop, and Valor IT has the money, they're getting a laptop and everything they need to make it work.
...If they have the money.
So far, Valour IT has raised enough to give over 1500 laptops to our wounded soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines; but there are more wounded men and women that could use our help.
So, just to keep this in the military spirit (and to use our rivalry to best effect), they have an annual interservice fundraising drive; with teams from and supporting each of the services competing to raise the most cash for the cause.
One should note, all the money ends up being used for ALL service members; the money raised by the Air Force team doesn't go only to Airmen. It's just a way of having a little fun while raising money for a good cause.
This is a standard, tax deductible charitable donation, and I can't imagine a better cause. All my charitable giving for the last two years, and for the foreseeable future (excepting that going to my parish), is going to Valour IT; and I ask you to please help in any way you can.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
In Flanders Fields
In Flanders FieldsIt is now the 11th hour, of the 11th day, of the 11th month, at Compiegne...
--Lt. Col. John McCrae, M.D. (1872-1918)
Royal Canadian Army
In Flanders fields the poppies blow
Between the crosses, row on row,
That mark our place; and in the sky
The larks, still bravely singing, fly
Scarce heard amid the guns below.
We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived, felt dawn, saw sunset glow,
Loved, and were loved, and now we lie
In Flanders fields.
Take up our quarrel with the foe:
To you from failing hands we throw
The torch; be yours to hold it high.
If ye break faith with us who die
We shall not sleep, though poppies grow
In Flanders fields.
First, today is Veterans Day
In America, Memorial Day is for the dead, and Veterans Day is for the living. As such, first I wish to give thanks.
I thank all of you, still serving to defend out country; and those of our friends and allies; and those who are fighting to preserve freedom, liberty, justice, and humanity.
Thank you cousin Jesse (USN, '97 - present, UDT, BM1) - Only one thing he ever wanted in life, to be a SEAL. He got his wish, and he's off god knows where doing god knows what; and couldn't be happier.
Thank you cousin Johnathan (USN 2001 - present, AC1C) - dropped out of college after 9/11 to join the Navy, because in his own words, it was the right thing to do for his country.
Thank you cousin Robert (USAF 2004 - present, A1C, CCT) - Followed his brother down to Jax, and at 25, decided to follow me into the Air Force instead.
May god bless you and keep you.
I thank all of you who have served in the past; for the risks you have taken, and the sacrifices you have made.
Thank you Dad (USA '66-'74 SFC) - a 15 year old Irish immigrant with a forged birth certificate; grew up on the streets, but became both a citizen, and a man in the Army. Almost 9 years in, almost all of it in SF, and almost all of that in SEA. By the end he was broken, and he only recently put himself together again. I love you dad.
Thank you uncle Patrick (USN '68-72 GM3) - My fathers brother, who spent most of those years sending steel over the coast of VN.
Thank you uncle Brian (USMC, '79-87 SSgt. USANG '88-92 SFC) - My mothers brother, who fought the war we pretended didn't happen in the phillipines, and then again in the gulf.
Thank you Ben (USA '97 - 2001, Cpl, Inf, Rgr, 3rdBt. 75th rgt.) - Lead the way, then lead his family.
Thank you John, Troy, Tony and Z; Soldier, Sailor, Marine, and Airman respectively.
It was almost fifteen years ago that I first put on my countries uniform, and seven years ago I last took it off. Every day I miss it.
Second, today is Remembrance Day (sometimes known as Armistice day):
This day, we celebrate the moment that the first great war of the last century was ended; in the eleventh hour, of the eleventh day, of the eleventh month, of the year of our lord nineteen hundred and eighteen.
On this day I also give thanks; for those who laid down their lives, and for those who lived; to keep Europe free.
90 years gone, and still every year we mark this day (though in America we reserve Memorial day for our dead, from all wars).
Remembrance day though; it still means something here as Armistice day; and it most certainly still means something around the world.. for now; for as long as the people remember... which I hope shall be always, but I fear shall be for not much longer.
Why is it called poppy day?
Britain, France, Belgium, Canada, Australia, Russia... and on the other side Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary (and the remains of the holy roman empire), Turkey (and the other ottomans)... an entire generation of young men in Europe were lost to the most futile, worst run war, in modern history.
In four years, 18 million men died (or went missing, which is mostly the same thing), and 22 million men were wounded.
In fact, Europe has never recovered from this greatest of historical mistakes. It was the direct aftermath of world war one that lead to world war two; which created the postmodern European culture that is slowly being destroyed from without and within by self hatred, depression, defeatism, socialism, and Islamic fascism...
But I digress; I was talking about why it is called poppy day.
Flanders is a region of Belgium; where the fighting in the great war was at it's worst, along with Wallonia, and northern France. The worst battles of the war were at Ypres, the Marne, the Somme, and Verdun.
At the Somme alone, the British lost 20,000 dead in one single day; and the allied forces (mostly British) lost 120,000 dead, and over 375,000 wounded total; with 100,000 dead and 350,000 wounded on the German side. The battle lasted from July 1st , til November 18th, 1916. Almost five solid months of the most brutal trench warfare ever seen; and nothing to show for it but blood, and mud.
Perhaps 200,000 total dead at the Marne (1st and 2nd), perhaps 50,000 at Ypres, Perhaps 300,000 total dead at Verdun... (10 months, and the bloodiest battle of the war, though The Somme had the bloodiest day); and nothing to show for it but blood and mud.
There was an amazing thing though; that blood, and that mud... it became magnificently fertile soil; and soon after the fighting ended, all over these horrific battlefields, poppies began to bloom.
In the first great war, as had been tradition for most of western history; those killed in battle were buried in the fields where they fell. Their memorials were raised there; a tribute to those who fought and died, and a reminder to those who did not.
And there, in Flanders and Wallonia, and in France, and in Luxembourg; there lay an entire generation of men. Millions upon millions of white crosses, millions upon millions of unmarked graves in farmers fields; surrounded by millions upon millions of poppies.
A symbol of life, of blood, of the fight for liberty and freedom. The poppies among those men who died were taken up; first by the French and the Belgians, then the Canadians and British and Americans.
Today, the poppy is a symbol of remembrance.
Finally, today is my anniversary.
I said above that I miss serving. I miss the people I served with, and the sense of mission, and of accomplishment; but... today is my anniversary, and it would not be if I had not changed my course. I don't regret what has brought me here. I love my wife, and my children more than I can possibly imagine; or possibly express to you.
Mel, I love you.
Monday, November 10, 2008
A Conversation
LSE (larval stage engineer): Exactly what kind of job can you get with a degree in feminism?
Chris: Socialist Indoctrinator
LSE: You'd think the market demand for socialist indoctrinator would be rather small...
Chris: Sadly, no
Chris: Socialist Indoctrinator
LSE: You'd think the market demand for socialist indoctrinator would be rather small...
Chris: Sadly, no
A bit of advice for the Republican party
Fred Thompson for
RNC chair!
RNC chair!
He may not have been able to win a primary, but he's the only Republican worth listening to, who might be willing to take the job.
Oh and if you think the problem is you're "too conservative" you haven't been paying attenti.... oh... wait... that's right.
Just Call Me Simplistic
This is what Congressman Jim Moran (formerly of Boston, currently of Virginia) thinks of us productive folks:
Next time someone tells you the democrats aren't redistributionists, smack them upside the head please.
Next time someone tells you the democrats aren't redistributionists, smack them upside the head please.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Is it just me...
Or does anyone else think the prospect of Al Franken as a senator is just embarrassing and ridiculous?
Demographics, Statistics, and Signs of Hope
Obviously, I disagree with the choice that 51% of Americans made last night, but in that choice, there are many aspects that I think are good things... perhaps great things.
The first point, is that although the democrats are already trying to spin this as a huge numeric victory, it is not. Though the electoral college totals are approximately 2 to 1 Obama, that is because of the math of the swing states in the electoral college. There are 8 states where Obamas margin of victory is 3% or under. A 1.5% swing one way or the other, and the results would be quite different.
I reported earlier this week that I believed the 10% support advantage polls showed for Obama was drastically inflated, and that any state within six percent would break for McCain.
It turns out I was half right. The real number was 3% not 10%. I thought that those six point states would swing all six points when it came down to actual voting. Instead they swung 3 or 4 points.
The polls however were very clearly wrong. The exit polls over indicated Obamas support by as much as 10% in some states. This is I think a long term problem that we need to address.
Now as to demographics, they interest me (of course they are also based on the flawed polling data, but the numbers are so large as to be at least indicitive).
McCain won about 60% of whites overall. This is a larger margin than expected. He won both white men, and white women, by a significant margin. It was expected that he would lose white women (and when race is taken out of the equation, McCain lost all women 45-55).
I don't want to speculate as to why here; I'll leave that to others. I'm sure they will do so, with great vitriol.
Obama won 95% of blacks, and this election featured the largest turnout of blacks in history. I think that's a great thing. I hope that a non-black candidate would have the same result.
Obama won 60% of hispanics, a suprising achievement; and more hispanics voted in this election than any other election in american history. Again I think this is great.
Obama won 70% of people under 30 and 70% of first time voters. More people under 30 voted in this election than ever before in American history. First time voters made up a larger percentage of the electorate than any other election in American history.
Collectively the four groups I mentioned, usually make up less than 10% of actual voters. This election they made up about 30% of voters, and that is absolutely INCREDIBLE.
Although all the votes have not yet been counted, if the polls are even close to right, more Americans voted in our election than have ever voted before.
That is even more incredible. We have recently been a country where 40% participation has been considered "good"; and yesterday, we had perhaps 60% of the eligible voting populace do so. I won't be happy until we get to over 80%, but I'm heartened.
In fact, I am heartened by all of this. I am given hope.
143 years ago, a black man in this country could not vote. 43 years ago, a black man in Mississippi may have even been killed for trying to. Next January, a black man is going to be president.
The cynic in me says that a fair portion of the reason his is president is because he IS black... but the idealist in me hopes this truly says that race is no longer relevant... or that at least we are walking down that road.
I hope these amazing changes continue, and grow. I hope that those people become fully engaged, and educate themselves, and perhaps commit themselves to liberty as they do.
I fear they will not, but I hope.
The first point, is that although the democrats are already trying to spin this as a huge numeric victory, it is not. Though the electoral college totals are approximately 2 to 1 Obama, that is because of the math of the swing states in the electoral college. There are 8 states where Obamas margin of victory is 3% or under. A 1.5% swing one way or the other, and the results would be quite different.
I reported earlier this week that I believed the 10% support advantage polls showed for Obama was drastically inflated, and that any state within six percent would break for McCain.
It turns out I was half right. The real number was 3% not 10%. I thought that those six point states would swing all six points when it came down to actual voting. Instead they swung 3 or 4 points.
The polls however were very clearly wrong. The exit polls over indicated Obamas support by as much as 10% in some states. This is I think a long term problem that we need to address.
Now as to demographics, they interest me (of course they are also based on the flawed polling data, but the numbers are so large as to be at least indicitive).
McCain won about 60% of whites overall. This is a larger margin than expected. He won both white men, and white women, by a significant margin. It was expected that he would lose white women (and when race is taken out of the equation, McCain lost all women 45-55).
I don't want to speculate as to why here; I'll leave that to others. I'm sure they will do so, with great vitriol.
Obama won 95% of blacks, and this election featured the largest turnout of blacks in history. I think that's a great thing. I hope that a non-black candidate would have the same result.
Obama won 60% of hispanics, a suprising achievement; and more hispanics voted in this election than any other election in american history. Again I think this is great.
Obama won 70% of people under 30 and 70% of first time voters. More people under 30 voted in this election than ever before in American history. First time voters made up a larger percentage of the electorate than any other election in American history.
Collectively the four groups I mentioned, usually make up less than 10% of actual voters. This election they made up about 30% of voters, and that is absolutely INCREDIBLE.
Although all the votes have not yet been counted, if the polls are even close to right, more Americans voted in our election than have ever voted before.
That is even more incredible. We have recently been a country where 40% participation has been considered "good"; and yesterday, we had perhaps 60% of the eligible voting populace do so. I won't be happy until we get to over 80%, but I'm heartened.
In fact, I am heartened by all of this. I am given hope.
143 years ago, a black man in this country could not vote. 43 years ago, a black man in Mississippi may have even been killed for trying to. Next January, a black man is going to be president.
The cynic in me says that a fair portion of the reason his is president is because he IS black... but the idealist in me hopes this truly says that race is no longer relevant... or that at least we are walking down that road.
I hope these amazing changes continue, and grow. I hope that those people become fully engaged, and educate themselves, and perhaps commit themselves to liberty as they do.
I fear they will not, but I hope.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Credulous Fools
The financial crisis, caused by democrats, deepened by democrats, spun by democrats as the fault of republicans; and the credulous fools across our nation who believed them; lost this election for John McCain.
The momentum had shifted. Obamas support had peaked; and it was even looking like the democrats lead in the house and senate could be curtailed.
But the credulous fools have won.
The immature, petulant cretins; who neither knew nor understood the causes of their own outrage; directed that outrage improperly against the minority party, and their unpopular president; at the prompting of the outrageously biased media.
The media who were not only complicit in this fraud; but in fact initiated it, perpetuated it, accentuated it, and highlighted it at every opportunity.
They defrauded the people as to the cause of their problems. They defrauded the people on the polls (I was right on the polls, Obamas support levels were dramatically inflated; just not as much as I surmised). They defrauded the people as to who and what they were voting for.
Perhaps this is the inevitable consequence, when the party of the president abandons all principles; and abuses the public trust, as the republicans have done.
Now, we the people, will suffer. We will suffer under the one party rule of fanatics, zealots, and economic idiots; who believe that freedom and liberty are granted at the pleasure of government.
I fear for us all.
The momentum had shifted. Obamas support had peaked; and it was even looking like the democrats lead in the house and senate could be curtailed.
But the credulous fools have won.
The immature, petulant cretins; who neither knew nor understood the causes of their own outrage; directed that outrage improperly against the minority party, and their unpopular president; at the prompting of the outrageously biased media.
The media who were not only complicit in this fraud; but in fact initiated it, perpetuated it, accentuated it, and highlighted it at every opportunity.
They defrauded the people as to the cause of their problems. They defrauded the people on the polls (I was right on the polls, Obamas support levels were dramatically inflated; just not as much as I surmised). They defrauded the people as to who and what they were voting for.
Perhaps this is the inevitable consequence, when the party of the president abandons all principles; and abuses the public trust, as the republicans have done.
Now, we the people, will suffer. We will suffer under the one party rule of fanatics, zealots, and economic idiots; who believe that freedom and liberty are granted at the pleasure of government.
I fear for us all.
Monday, November 03, 2008
Think National, Vote Local
So, tomorrow, citizens of the 50 states will vote, not just for president; but also for their representatives at the federal, state, and local level.
Many will also be voting for judges, sheriffs, corporate commissioners, school board members, and the other elected offices of state. Let's not forget that they have as much ore more of a direct impact on your life, as the president does. These are choices that should not be ignored.
Not only that, but remember, the school board member today, could be the VP candidate 12 years from now.
Obviously, I can't vote in your races, only mine; and I've decided to talk about who I'm voting for (or sadly, more often, who I'm voting against), and why:
President: As I've made clear, I'm voting against Obama, with the only realistic choice, McCain. If I need to explain that any further here, you haven't been paying attention
Congress: I'm a resident of the Arizona 5th congressional district, and I'm voting against Harry Mitchell, for the only realistic choice, David Schweikert. My preferred candidate (Anderson) was not chosen in the primary; but I don't object to Schweikert. On the other hand I object to more democrats in congress in general, and Harry Mitchell specifically. The man is a liar and a lickspittly for Nancy Pelosi.
State Senate: I'm a resident of Arizona State District 17, and I'll be voting against Democrat Meg Burton-Cahill, for the only other choice (there are no third party candidates) Jesse Hernandez. In this case, I am voting this way because Burton-Cahill is an educational and healthcare socialist, and mildly negative on gun rights. She doesn't really do much, which I approve of, but what she does do is generally lefty in nature.
State Representative: I'm a resident of Arizona State District 17, and I'll be voting against Democrat Ed Ableser, because he is about two steps further to the left than Burton-Cahill, and is strongly anti-gun rights. He is a very strong eductaion and healthcare socialist, and supports illegal immigration.
I will also be voting against Democrat David Schapira; though I have far less of an issue with him politically than Ableser. He is more to the center on most issues, and I even agree with him (and disagree with the republicans) on many issues. Unfortunately, Schapira is against gun rights as well.
On our ballots we can make two choices, and there are two republicans and no third party choices. I will be casting my ballot for Republicans Mark Thompson, and Wes Waddle.
Sheriff: I especially want to note the race for Sherrif.
Joe Arpaio is wrong about almost everything, excepting that he believes in strongly enforcing criminal penalties, and opposes illegal immigration... Now. He didn't used to, because he wanted the feds to take care of it (a position I think is technically correct, but unrealistic for a Sherriff in Arizona). He is a self serving media hound, and places his own well being above that of his deputies; and of service to law and justice.
Unfortunately, his primary opponent the last three elections has been Dan Saban; who I once respected, but who has been shown to be just as opportunistic and dishonest as Arpaio.
I will be voting for the Libertarian candidate, Chris Will; in a futile gesture. I know that Arpaio will be re-elected until he decides to stop running, or until he is convicted of a crime and/or forced to resign in disgrace... both of which have a better than even chance of happening.
Other Notable Offices: I'm voting to give control of the Arizona Coporate Comission to the republicans, because I prefer the AZ Republican parties official positions on business regulation. I would vote for Libertarians here, but none are running.
I'll be voting for Libertatarian Rachel Kielsky for county assessor, and her husband Libertarian Michael Kielsky for county attorney; because I believe in their governmental and legal philosophies.
I'll also be voing of Libertarian Ernest Hancock for County Recorder, and David Hodges for Superintendant; simply becayse I want to see more libertarians in local elected office.
You'll note that whenever I didn't rank defeating the democrat a priority, I've chosen a Libertarian. In general, I beleieve the Libertarian party in Arizona best represents what we should do with government. Unfortunately, they have rarely produced viable candidates, in fact often running conspiracy theorist types.
Also they in general support open borders and a weak national defense. This makes them ideal for local offices in my mind, but unsuited to national offices.
I do have one problem with the AZ Libertarian party in general, and that is they support altering Arizona elections to a "reanked preference" votign system, which I believe is a bad idea (it's too long to go into why now). It WOULD result in more Libertarians being elected, at the expense of creating weak coalitions, and various negative incentives common to such systems (I've lived under one in Ireland, and it's a disaster).
Ballot Initiatives:
Also tomorrow most of us will be voting on a number of ballot propositions, which will generally have a greater impact on your life than the choice of president.
I'm going to go through the Arizona list here, and talk about how I've chosen to vote and why:
Proposition 100: "Protect Our Homes" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
Although in general, I do not support amendment of the constitution for what should be legislative matters; the state legislature has proven several times that they are willing to go around rules and prior legislation to increase revenue collection.
This amendment would make it impossible for the state to add any new taxes to the sale or transfer of homes.
In general I support restricting the authority of government to tax; and specifically in this instance, I believe that transfer taxes are regressive, and detrimental to the market.
Proposition 101: "Medical Choice for Arizona" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
This amendment would permanently prevent any form of socialized medicine from being made mandatory in Arizona, by preventing the legislature from passing any law denying someone the right to chose their own healthcare or health insurance provider.
In case you needed any more incentive; the only major group opposing this legislation, is the group that is pushing to establish nationalized or state sponsored socialized medicine in Arizona.
Proposition 102: "Marriage Protection Amendment" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: No
Reasoning:
I believe the government should not legislate marriage at all.
I specifically believe that even if the government does have a legitimate interest in legslating on marriage, that it is a legislative matter not a constitutional one, and should not be addressed as an amendment.
Proposition 105: "Majority Rules" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
This amendment would require any ballot initiative which would require raising taxes, or which would raise taxes, to pass with a majority of registered voters, instead of just a majority of those who chose to vote on the initiative.
Importantly, it helps protect against the tyranny of the vocal minority in passing initiatives. As many voters are uneducated and unmotivated to vote for or against any particular initiative, this amendment would require that supporters of an initiative educate and motivate enough voters to actively support that initiative, rather than simply passively not vote.
This would make raising taxes and passing frivolous, wasteful, or confiscatory measures MUCH more difficult. A principle I always support.
Proposition 200: "Payday Loan Reform Act"
Postion: No
Reasoning:
Well, first, I don't think the payday loan industry needs to be reformed. I think market forces will do a fine job as it is; or would if they were allowed to do so.
However, even if that were not the case, this initiative is a fraud. Although written and described to seem as if the law would improve the terms of payday loans, and those that take them; in fact this legislation would result in WORSE conditions and standards. It was written by the industry themselves as a trojan horse.
Proposition 201: "Homeowners Bill of Rights"
Postion: No
Reasoning:
Again, the title of this initiative is misleading. They want to sell it as a "homeowners bill of rights", but what it really should be called is the "Trial lawyers association and construction unions wishlist against home builders and developers".
This initiative would for all intents and purposes put every independent home builder or general contractor in Arizona out of business.
The only way a builder or contractor could conduct business is with far more expensive and far higher limit liability insurance, and the backing of either a national union, or a large development corporation.
The immediate effect will also be to increase the cost of every new home in Arizona by $25,000 to $50,000.
This is one of the worst cases of rentseeking by attorneys that I have ever seen.
The bill is opposed by the national taxpayers union, the Arizona Citizens against Lawsuit Abuse, and the Arizona Builders Association.
That should be enough for anyone really.
Proposition 202: "Stop Illegal Hiring"
Postion: No
Reasoning:
While other ballot initiative names might be misleading; this name could best be described as outright fraud.
Although the supporters of this initiative are trying to sell it as strengthening penalties for illegal hiring, this is in fact entirely false.
The only element that would be strengthened would be the penalties for deliberate fraud, and identity theft.
Meanwhile, this legislation would exempt 2/3 of Arizona businesses, including almost all Arizona farms, and small businesses; from the existing (and very tough) employer sanctions laws.
Additionally, for those few businesses not exempted by this initiative, it would raise the burden of proof to apply those sanctions; requiring the state to prove deliberate fraud on the part of business owners to apply sanctions.
This is one of the worst pieces of legislation I have ever seen; and I believe that the people proposing it, and advertising it, should be prosecuted for conspiracy to defraud voters.
Proposition 300: "State Legislator Salaries"
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
Although we have a part time legislature, and we want to keep it that way, I have no problem with our legislators being compensated better for their time. It will merely encourage those who do not want to be professional politicians, to consider running for our legislature, because they would not have to give up as much of their other potential income to do so.
Many will also be voting for judges, sheriffs, corporate commissioners, school board members, and the other elected offices of state. Let's not forget that they have as much ore more of a direct impact on your life, as the president does. These are choices that should not be ignored.
Not only that, but remember, the school board member today, could be the VP candidate 12 years from now.
Obviously, I can't vote in your races, only mine; and I've decided to talk about who I'm voting for (or sadly, more often, who I'm voting against), and why:
President: As I've made clear, I'm voting against Obama, with the only realistic choice, McCain. If I need to explain that any further here, you haven't been paying attention
Congress: I'm a resident of the Arizona 5th congressional district, and I'm voting against Harry Mitchell, for the only realistic choice, David Schweikert. My preferred candidate (Anderson) was not chosen in the primary; but I don't object to Schweikert. On the other hand I object to more democrats in congress in general, and Harry Mitchell specifically. The man is a liar and a lickspittly for Nancy Pelosi.
State Senate: I'm a resident of Arizona State District 17, and I'll be voting against Democrat Meg Burton-Cahill, for the only other choice (there are no third party candidates) Jesse Hernandez. In this case, I am voting this way because Burton-Cahill is an educational and healthcare socialist, and mildly negative on gun rights. She doesn't really do much, which I approve of, but what she does do is generally lefty in nature.
State Representative: I'm a resident of Arizona State District 17, and I'll be voting against Democrat Ed Ableser, because he is about two steps further to the left than Burton-Cahill, and is strongly anti-gun rights. He is a very strong eductaion and healthcare socialist, and supports illegal immigration.
I will also be voting against Democrat David Schapira; though I have far less of an issue with him politically than Ableser. He is more to the center on most issues, and I even agree with him (and disagree with the republicans) on many issues. Unfortunately, Schapira is against gun rights as well.
On our ballots we can make two choices, and there are two republicans and no third party choices. I will be casting my ballot for Republicans Mark Thompson, and Wes Waddle.
Sheriff: I especially want to note the race for Sherrif.
Joe Arpaio is wrong about almost everything, excepting that he believes in strongly enforcing criminal penalties, and opposes illegal immigration... Now. He didn't used to, because he wanted the feds to take care of it (a position I think is technically correct, but unrealistic for a Sherriff in Arizona). He is a self serving media hound, and places his own well being above that of his deputies; and of service to law and justice.
Unfortunately, his primary opponent the last three elections has been Dan Saban; who I once respected, but who has been shown to be just as opportunistic and dishonest as Arpaio.
I will be voting for the Libertarian candidate, Chris Will; in a futile gesture. I know that Arpaio will be re-elected until he decides to stop running, or until he is convicted of a crime and/or forced to resign in disgrace... both of which have a better than even chance of happening.
Other Notable Offices: I'm voting to give control of the Arizona Coporate Comission to the republicans, because I prefer the AZ Republican parties official positions on business regulation. I would vote for Libertarians here, but none are running.
I'll be voting for Libertatarian Rachel Kielsky for county assessor, and her husband Libertarian Michael Kielsky for county attorney; because I believe in their governmental and legal philosophies.
I'll also be voing of Libertarian Ernest Hancock for County Recorder, and David Hodges for Superintendant; simply becayse I want to see more libertarians in local elected office.
You'll note that whenever I didn't rank defeating the democrat a priority, I've chosen a Libertarian. In general, I beleieve the Libertarian party in Arizona best represents what we should do with government. Unfortunately, they have rarely produced viable candidates, in fact often running conspiracy theorist types.
Also they in general support open borders and a weak national defense. This makes them ideal for local offices in my mind, but unsuited to national offices.
I do have one problem with the AZ Libertarian party in general, and that is they support altering Arizona elections to a "reanked preference" votign system, which I believe is a bad idea (it's too long to go into why now). It WOULD result in more Libertarians being elected, at the expense of creating weak coalitions, and various negative incentives common to such systems (I've lived under one in Ireland, and it's a disaster).
Ballot Initiatives:
Also tomorrow most of us will be voting on a number of ballot propositions, which will generally have a greater impact on your life than the choice of president.
I'm going to go through the Arizona list here, and talk about how I've chosen to vote and why:
Proposition 100: "Protect Our Homes" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
Although in general, I do not support amendment of the constitution for what should be legislative matters; the state legislature has proven several times that they are willing to go around rules and prior legislation to increase revenue collection.
This amendment would make it impossible for the state to add any new taxes to the sale or transfer of homes.
In general I support restricting the authority of government to tax; and specifically in this instance, I believe that transfer taxes are regressive, and detrimental to the market.
Proposition 101: "Medical Choice for Arizona" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
This amendment would permanently prevent any form of socialized medicine from being made mandatory in Arizona, by preventing the legislature from passing any law denying someone the right to chose their own healthcare or health insurance provider.
In case you needed any more incentive; the only major group opposing this legislation, is the group that is pushing to establish nationalized or state sponsored socialized medicine in Arizona.
Proposition 102: "Marriage Protection Amendment" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: No
Reasoning:
I believe the government should not legislate marriage at all.
I specifically believe that even if the government does have a legitimate interest in legslating on marriage, that it is a legislative matter not a constitutional one, and should not be addressed as an amendment.
Proposition 105: "Majority Rules" - Constitutional amendment
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
This amendment would require any ballot initiative which would require raising taxes, or which would raise taxes, to pass with a majority of registered voters, instead of just a majority of those who chose to vote on the initiative.
Importantly, it helps protect against the tyranny of the vocal minority in passing initiatives. As many voters are uneducated and unmotivated to vote for or against any particular initiative, this amendment would require that supporters of an initiative educate and motivate enough voters to actively support that initiative, rather than simply passively not vote.
This would make raising taxes and passing frivolous, wasteful, or confiscatory measures MUCH more difficult. A principle I always support.
Proposition 200: "Payday Loan Reform Act"
Postion: No
Reasoning:
Well, first, I don't think the payday loan industry needs to be reformed. I think market forces will do a fine job as it is; or would if they were allowed to do so.
However, even if that were not the case, this initiative is a fraud. Although written and described to seem as if the law would improve the terms of payday loans, and those that take them; in fact this legislation would result in WORSE conditions and standards. It was written by the industry themselves as a trojan horse.
Proposition 201: "Homeowners Bill of Rights"
Postion: No
Reasoning:
Again, the title of this initiative is misleading. They want to sell it as a "homeowners bill of rights", but what it really should be called is the "Trial lawyers association and construction unions wishlist against home builders and developers".
This initiative would for all intents and purposes put every independent home builder or general contractor in Arizona out of business.
The only way a builder or contractor could conduct business is with far more expensive and far higher limit liability insurance, and the backing of either a national union, or a large development corporation.
The immediate effect will also be to increase the cost of every new home in Arizona by $25,000 to $50,000.
This is one of the worst cases of rentseeking by attorneys that I have ever seen.
- Prop. 201 will prohibit two parties from agreeing to resolve their disputes without going to court and hiring attorneys.
- Prop 201 will forbid the defendants from recovering any attorney's fees, even if the case was frivolous or if they win.
- Prop. 201 will allow prospective buyers to file lawsuits. They will not even have to own the home to file a lawsuit.
- Prop 201 assures that all disputes, either large or small, go to court raising, costs for everyone.
The bill is opposed by the national taxpayers union, the Arizona Citizens against Lawsuit Abuse, and the Arizona Builders Association.
That should be enough for anyone really.
Proposition 202: "Stop Illegal Hiring"
Postion: No
Reasoning:
While other ballot initiative names might be misleading; this name could best be described as outright fraud.
Although the supporters of this initiative are trying to sell it as strengthening penalties for illegal hiring, this is in fact entirely false.
The only element that would be strengthened would be the penalties for deliberate fraud, and identity theft.
Meanwhile, this legislation would exempt 2/3 of Arizona businesses, including almost all Arizona farms, and small businesses; from the existing (and very tough) employer sanctions laws.
Additionally, for those few businesses not exempted by this initiative, it would raise the burden of proof to apply those sanctions; requiring the state to prove deliberate fraud on the part of business owners to apply sanctions.
This is one of the worst pieces of legislation I have ever seen; and I believe that the people proposing it, and advertising it, should be prosecuted for conspiracy to defraud voters.
Proposition 300: "State Legislator Salaries"
Postion: Yes
Reasoning:
Although we have a part time legislature, and we want to keep it that way, I have no problem with our legislators being compensated better for their time. It will merely encourage those who do not want to be professional politicians, to consider running for our legislature, because they would not have to give up as much of their other potential income to do so.
Pulls the win, but doesn't cover the spread
So, it's time for some more electoral predictorization. Let's talk about the point spread on the election.
I think the worst case scenario looks like this:
and the best case looks like this:
That's a pretty wide point spread there, at 68 points; though not as wide as some of the liberal nutbars out there are thinking. They actually believe that half the south and midwest are going Obama... because they are deluded, and believe their own BS.
Significantly though, we're only talking about a 5 state spread here: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Also significantly, all are within six points on polling; and if you believe DJ Drummond over at Wizbang (and I do. His analysis is spot on), all are actually within the margin of error on the most trustworthy polling data available... which is clearly not very trustworthy.
The polling companies have been making some arbitrary, and very unusual and ahistoric decisions on weighting factors; weighting democrats likely proportion of voters as 12% to 16% higher than republicans.
Historically speaking this is completely incorrect. Typically the actual spread is 3-4% and in the last 50 years has never been more than 7%.
So what it comes down to is, I think that anything in the 6 point range is currently a tossup, and anything 3 points or less for Obama is likely to break for McCain.
I made this prediction six weeks ago, and I'm sticking to it:
I think the worst case scenario looks like this:
and the best case looks like this:
That's a pretty wide point spread there, at 68 points; though not as wide as some of the liberal nutbars out there are thinking. They actually believe that half the south and midwest are going Obama... because they are deluded, and believe their own BS.
Significantly though, we're only talking about a 5 state spread here: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
Also significantly, all are within six points on polling; and if you believe DJ Drummond over at Wizbang (and I do. His analysis is spot on), all are actually within the margin of error on the most trustworthy polling data available... which is clearly not very trustworthy.
The polling companies have been making some arbitrary, and very unusual and ahistoric decisions on weighting factors; weighting democrats likely proportion of voters as 12% to 16% higher than republicans.
Historically speaking this is completely incorrect. Typically the actual spread is 3-4% and in the last 50 years has never been more than 7%.
So what it comes down to is, I think that anything in the 6 point range is currently a tossup, and anything 3 points or less for Obama is likely to break for McCain.
I made this prediction six weeks ago, and I'm sticking to it:
My god, I actually like Ben Afflecks acting in something...
Of course it's a parody sketch for SNL, so I don't know if it counts; but he's got a PERFECT skewer of Keith Olberman going on here:
After the first few minutes, just shut it off though. Like every remotely funny SNL sketch for the past five years, they beat it to death long past the point where funny turns to irritating.
After the first few minutes, just shut it off though. Like every remotely funny SNL sketch for the past five years, they beat it to death long past the point where funny turns to irritating.
If it weren't for Mike Huckabee...
Fred Thompson has a message about the real deal the democrats are offering this election:
UPDATE: For some reason the embeddable player is screwing up. Here's the link:
http://blog.fredpac.com/blog/2008/an-election-message-from-fred/
UPDATE: For some reason the embeddable player is screwing up. Here's the link:
http://blog.fredpac.com/blog/2008/an-election-message-from-fred/
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