11, or 14...
That's the minimum number of states it would take under the apportionment scheme for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections; to win in order to make 270 electoral votes.
Well... for a democrat anyway:
California - 55
Texas - 38
Florida - 29
New York - 29
Illinois - 20
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
Michigan - 16
North Carolina - 15
New Jersey - 14
District of Columbia - 3
Of course, that 11 includes Texas, which hasn't voted for a democrat for president since 1976; and isn't going to be doing so in the next 3 elections either, barring some strange change in ideology and demographics...
But all of those states except Texas have voted democrat in the last 20 years. Georgia is a tough one for Dems to win, but Clinton did it.
So, it's not really 11... Political reality, with an attractive democratic candidate, an unattractive republican... Maybe a third party splitting the republican vote as in '92...
Virgina, Washington, and Indiana could possibly replace the lost EVs of Texas.
Call it 14 states...
For Republicans, the numbers are substantially different:
Texas - 38
Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Arizona - 11
Indiana - 11
Tennessee - 11
Missouri - 10
Alabama - 9
Colorado - 9
South Carolina - 9
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 8
Oklahoma - 7
Arkansas - 6
Iowa - 6
Kansas - 6
Mississippi - 6
Nevada - 6
The political reality is that republicans have to win 22 states to hit 270; and of course, Pennsylvania is a tough one for Republicans (as Georgia is for Dems), but possible.
You'll note, there are six important possibles in each camp: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. These are the states which swing relatively easily, and which have 13 or more electoral votes. Together, they have 111 electoral votes; nearly half of what is required to hit the magic 270.
Ok... what are the "lock in" states? The ones that, again barring some radical changes are going to keep voting the way they have been, nearly guaranteed?
Democrat locks (16 states plus DC: 218ev):
California - 55
New York - 29
Illinois - 20
Michigan - 16
New Jersey - 14
Washington - 12
Massachusetts - 11
Maryland - 10
Minnesota - 10
Wisconsin - 10
Connecticut - 7
Oregon - 7
Rhode Island - 4
Hawaii - 4
Vermont - 3
Delaware - 3
DC - 3
Republican locks (14 states: 108):
Texas - 38
South Carolina - 9
Alabama - 9
Louisiana - 8
Oklahoma - 7
Arkansas - 6
Mississippi - 6
Utah - 6
Idaho - 4
Montana - 3
Wyoming - 3
North Dakota - 3
South Dakota - 3
Alaska - 3
So you can see, the dems have a 110 point lock in advantage; which coincidentally is the number of EV's from California, New York, Illinois, and Michigan.
The scary part of course is that for any given election, dems only need to get 52 more EV's over their lock ins.
Possible swings given the right circumstances (20 states: 212ev)
Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Tennessee - 11
Indiana - 11
Arizona - 11
Missouri - 10
Colorado - 9
Kentucky - 8
Kansas - 6
Iowa - 6
Nevada - 6
Nebraska - 5
New Mexico - 5
West Virginia - 5
Maine - 4
New Hampshire - 4
Obviously, some of these states lean strongly one way or the other, but under the right circumstances they could swing away from that lean.
Now, here's the really scary part though... How many (or few) of the potentially competitive states need to swing for each to win.
Democrats swing to win (3 states: 52ev):
Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Any other state (all states have at least 3 electoral votes)
Republicans swing to win (11 states: 162ev):
Florida - 29
Pennsylvania - 20
Ohio - 18
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Virginia - 13
Tennessee - 11
Indiana - 11
Arizona - 11
Missouri - 10
Colorado - 9
And of course, if you remove PA from the mix as a strong democrat leaner; then Republicans basically have to win both Florida... and almost every other competitive state.
If Republicans lose Florida, and Pennsylvania, they have to win EVERY other competitive state.
If Republicans lose Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio; they cannot win mathematically.
And remember, those lock ins are pretty much the same, no matter how bad the candiate is for any given party, nor how good the other guy may be.
It would take a dead girl or a live boy to knock those lock in states out of the democrat camp (except MAYBE wisconsin and Minnesota... and I really don't think so)...
...And even then, the dem candidate would STILL take California, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, and Michigan. The democratic machine is so strong in those states that there is literally no way they would vote for anyone other than a democrat.
The republican lockins aren't nearly as strong; and there aren't really any strong republican machines left outside of some small state parties. The only state that is nearly as locked in as the dem locks, is Utah (hasn't voted for a democrat since Johnson/Goldwater).
This is why, over the past 50 or so years, it has taken either an exceptionally bad democrat candidate, an exceptionally good republican candidate, or both; for a Republican to actually be elected in this country.
Oh and coincidently, it's also one reason why no third party has a shot in hell at winning an election in this country.
