Saturday, May 20, 2017

Fail Fast, Fail Frequently, Fail Forward

Being "detail oriented" is generally considered a good thing. It can be a great asset... even a critical requirement... for people like engineers, writers and editors, reporters, accountants, MBAs and analysts, and academics.

As such, being "detail oriented" is often mistaken by those groups of people (and those who rely on them, or think of them a benchmarks to judge themselves, and others) as a hallmark of ...or even a requirement for.... intelligence, competence, and success.

Conversely, not being "detail oriented", can appear as, or be taken (improperly) as; a sign of disorganization, a short attention span, even stupidity and incompetence.

...but...

Being "detail oriented", is not always the right thing, or the necessary thing. Sometimes, it even gets in the way or is actively harmful.

Jimmy Carter was incredibly detail oriented, as were both Bill Clinton, and Woodrow Wilson...

... didn't work out so well for those three as president...

Mostly, It just made them micromanaging, and indecisive... Delaying decisions or actions until they had "enough data"; "delegating" to subordinates,  without giving them actual authority for decision making; and making decisions, only to modify or even reverse them, when "new information" arrived... whether that information merited such action or not, and disregarding the negative consequences of doing so.

...You know.... the usual result, when a "detail oriented" person has far too much information; far too little ability to judge the relevance, importance, or quality of information they have, and properly filter and route it; far too little expertise or experience in a particular subject or issue (or sometimes far too much, in which case they may start to second guess and over think things,nor to prematurely optimize); and not enough time or resources to sufficiently remedy any of these problems.

When a "detail oriented" person finds themselves caught in such a situation (unless they are one of those who can naturally step back, and see systemic complexities, and interactions, in the "big picture", and then properly generalize, and relate them to other data, other systems, other problems etc... ) they will naturally tend to fixate on the details they DO understand... regardless of the acttual importance of those items, or the quality of the data..... and establish confirmation bias based simplifications and logic chains, that affirm their own illusions of control over the issue... but actually, most likely  just make things worse.

It's hubris... and it is a near universal problem... even for those of us who have been specifically trained to recognize and avoid it... because the real world is far too complex, with far too many dependent variables, and far too few independent variables, with far too few ways to properly simplify arend sennd ND abstract data arend senndndbnd problem sets; even just to ACTUALLY understand, never mind successfully control very much, very well.

... Unfortunately our brains are VERY good at creating a convincing illusion of control...

...Until we crash, hard, into reality... And hopefully don't break anything.... or anyone... too badly.

...And of course, when it's a president who is having this problem, the consequences can be a lot more serious than when it's just some guy...

When you don't have the time to actually become an expert or authority on the 300 plus absolutely critical subjects you have to make decisions about every single day... you don't need to be more detail oriented... What you need, is to be able to very quickly understand the important principles, the overall context, what the most important and relevant details are, and what the variables, options, and consequences of various specifics of your decision may be.

Under those circumstances, being "detail oriented" actually serves to distract you, and gives you the illusion of greater understanding, expertise and control, than you actually have.

... which leads to even greater tendency towards not only initial error... but then a worsening death spiral of error and hubris.

You don't need to get all the details right... because you can't... it's not actually possible.

You need to be able to decide and act fast... but in the right way...

You have to observe, orient, and simplify to decision points; make decisions and set direction; effectively drive action and execution; then analyze the results of actions taken, and iteratively improve.

...and that's not a common ability, nor is it easy...

A very large portion of my profession, involves taking a huge amount of very detailed, very hard to understand, very technical information; documenting all of it thoroughly, along with context and history,  best practices, requirements, regulations, limitations and constraints... plus references etc...

Distilling all of those hundreds, or sometimes thousands of pages, down into both a detailed report with EVERYTHING... and far more importantly, a short summary; including the background and context, the important principles and issues, the most critical details, the risks and consequences, the costs and benefits etc...writing out specific requirements and recommendations, and prioritizing them, with an outline of actions that may be taken on such recommmendations.

It may have taken me and my team anywhere from a week, to as much as six months, to gather all the background and requirements, run all the testing, gather all the data, perform all the analysis etc...; with another five to ten days, full time, of writing it all up, into both the full report and the summary... maybe even twenty or more additional days, including outlines, drafts, revisions and the like... A full working month...

Then, I have to present that to the people who are financially and legally responsible for the operations of the organization... and they need to immediately, or at least very quickly, decide what to do about particular requirements, particular problems, particular options etc... Often in the room, right then. And they need to give a legal signoff, often with multiple literal signatures and copies, sent to auditors, regulators, courts etc...

Frequently, I have as little as 15 minutes TOTAL to make my presentation and explanations, answer any questions, and get approvals etc...

...Meaning the execs only have a few minutes to understand, and make their decisions as well...

If they get it wrong, or execute on it badly, they can personally be fined thousands  or even millions of dollars, or possibly even go to jail; in addition to the consequences to the organization, which may include huge losses of information, of direct revenue, and most importantly loss of confidence and reputation.

Good leaders, may go back and re-read the whole report later... certainly they will have at least two subordinates they trust, and who will come at it from at least two different directions and perspectives, dissect it in detail and review it with them...  but they don't have time right now.... Right now, they need to orient, decide, and act

To do THAT,  they will rely on the input from their trusted subordinates... and from me, the expert...

...They don't read the full report right now...they read the summary, and the charts, and the important notes etc... and they also read ME, as I'm presenting... and they read their own people, and their reactions or how something sits with them.

Theynobswrve the data, and they observe and analyze my word choice, tone, posture, and demeanor... and those of their peoples... and how they convey meaning. How certain I am of what I'm saying, and how competent and how knowledgeable am I, based on how comfortable and relaxed I am with my own work, and with the subject matter as a whole... even if the report may be unpleasant or distressing. How I weight the variables and options. My level of comfort and certainty... or discomfort and uncertainty... with my data, my analysis, my recommendations... everything...

...then based on this observation and analysis, they orient themselves to the problem properly,  make a decision right then, so they can make all the necessary supporting decisions, and take whatever immediate actions may be required....

...So that we can start moving and acting, as quickly as possible...and so that we can FAIL as quickly as possibly, as small as possible, and therefore we can iterate again... improving and correcting, as we go.

Because they don't expect to get every decision exactly right, the first time, every time... Or EVER for that matter... because it's almost impossible to do so...

... Becausenthey understand.. it's a lot easier to get it right by orienting on what you think are the right problems, and what you think is the right direction; acting on your analysis, until you get stuck into it, and find things you need to change; then iterating, and iterating, until you get it right.

Plan, do, check, act... repeated..... until you get it done, and get it right.

Fail fast, fail frequently, fail forward.

You might have noted, there is another president right now... who is essentially the polar opposite of Jimmy Carter... and  who is being portrayed as being stupid, incompetent, having a short attention span, and being rash... too quick to judge, moving too fast, without waiting for better data or understanding all the details...

Yeah... pretty obvious ain't it?

Now... I don't think Trump is some kind of genius... In fact, I detest the man on a personal level, and at best I'm unimpressed with him as a businesssman... a don't think he has any business being president, and I very much doubt that he will have a good and successful presidency... though I hope I am wrong, and he's very successful, and does very well for the country...

...But... I can say, that I recognize very clearly, the pattern of someone who is used to doing just what I described here... Orienting, deciding, and acting quickly, then failing quickly, deciding and acting again, and iteratively improving... or at least trying to.

He doesn't deliberate, or delegate, once he's already involved directly, or has to make a decision.... He delegates everything possible right up until he HAS to make that decision, and then gets involved directly; makes the decision, without second guessing, and acts on it, until it fails or requires revision. Then he makes another decision, acts on it, and If it fails, it fails... and they fix it again, and again, until you fix all the problems you can find... and hopefully, you're  successful.

Because every success, large or small, is made up of many small failures.

You decide and act as fast as possible, so you can fail as fast as possible... and  you want to know as quickly as possibly so you can fix or replace as quickly as possible.

Trump is TRYING to do this in office... and it's sometimes working, but mostly not... for various reasons, none of them good...

But... if you're paying any real attention at all, it should be clear at this point.... the narratives being drawn around the Trump administration?

Well... the media doesn't seem to actually get anything else right... why would they get this one right?

Especially since it would be against their own goals, and their own interests, to do so....