As of a few minutes ago, we've hit the 3 year anniversary of the first confirmed cases of COVID 19 outside of China.
In those 3 years, appx. 1.1 million have died in the U. S. with their proximate cause of death attributed primarily or entirely to COVID-19 (and another appx 400,000 where it was a complication but not the primary or proximate cause of death); out of approximately 100 million cases receiving some medical treatment for it, and approximate 410 thousand receiving admission to critical or intensive care and recovering.
... That's out of the estimated 42-44% of the total U.S population, or approximately 140-146 million total individuals having been infected, according to antibody testing...
...Also please note, that's the total number of people, not the total number of cases... A lot of folks have already had COVID more than once. Although there are no real firm numbers, it's estimated that over 18 months, approximately 20% of those who have been infected, will suffer reinfection at least once, and across the entire 3 year period, if you experienced your first infection early in the pandemic, there was about a 40% chance of suffering reinfection at least once, and about a 5% chance of reinfection more than once. I've had it twice myself confirmed with testing, and may have had it a third time (it was a presumptive positive, with full symptoms, but milder than those I'd had before. The retest was inconclusive, because my symptoms had already abated, and I'd already had it twice before)...
That does include about 2/3 of the estimated 60% of infections that result in mild symptoms, or totally asymptomatic presentation... About 40% of those testing positive report themselves as totally asymptomatic, with another 20% reporting symptoms similar to moderate colds, moderate allergy attacks, or a mild case of flu... But that also means the actual total of individuals infected is actually likely to be approximately 178-182 million.
So, once accounting for estimated rates of multiple infections, and estimated infections going untested and unreported, the total CASE count, is estimated at approximately 224 to 228 million total infections... Let's go with the lower estimate and round down, for appx 220 million.
Approximately 220 million total infections, of approximately 180 million individuals, with appx. 100 million receiving medical treatment of some kind, appx. 2.9 million receiving hospital treatment, resulting in appx. 1.9 million total hospital admissions with an overnight stay or longer, and approximately 1.5 million receiving critical or intensive care (including out of hospital emergency care), with a final result of approximately 1.1 million total deaths (all these numbers are either from the CDC or calculated based off those CDC numbers).
That by the way, is out of approximately 10.2 million deaths in the U.S. overall in those 3 years, enough to make COVID 19 the third leading cause of death for the last three years, behind heart disease and cancer, and ahead of accidental deaths and strokes. Which sounds very bad... And it's certainly not good... But it isn't really as bad as it sounds (because of how those deaths are distributed statistically and demographically, which I'll get into more below).
The official estimated mortality rate for cases requiring medical treatment is approximately 1.1%, but the overall rate, including asymptomatic and unreported cases (which obviously did not require medical treatment) is likely approximately 0.5% or approximately 1 in 200 cases.
A perhaps more interesting set of numbers has a very significant impact on things however... Approximately 80% of all COVID fatalities were over the age of 65, and approximately 80% of those had at least one other major underlying medical issue that contributed to their outcome.
... And even more significant... Nearly 50% of all COVID deaths over the last three years, were of those over the age of 74, 44% were over the age of 77, and about 25% were over the age of 85... And again, almost 80% of those also had at least one major underlying health condition, and 40% at least two major underlying health conditions. Meaning that statistically, nearly all of those people were very likely to have died anyway of some other cause in that 3 year period.
In epidemiology terms, anyone who died of COVID over the age of 74 with one or more major underlying health condition, was not what is called an "excess death"... Statistically, It was expected they would die in that time period.
Of the 20% of fatalities under age 65, appx 80% had at least one major underlying health issue, and appx. 40% had two or more major underlying health issues.
When accounting for these factors, only about 40% of total COVID deaths are "excess deaths", over and above what would have been expected without COVID.
Again, that's still very bad... I'm not saying it isn't... it's just not nearly as bad as the initial estimates, nor is it nearly as bad as most people feel and believe it has been.
As an otherwise healthy individual under 65, your estimated mortality rate for COVID is approximately 0.02% ... Not 2%, or 2/10ths of a percent... 2/100ths of one percent.
... Which is absolutely miniscule... Though, it's actually still the sixth leading cause of death for those under 65, over the last 3 years.
So, counting from the appx. 220 million total infections, about 44,000 of the about 1.1 million total deaths, were of of healthy people under age 65... And that's over three years... Less than 15,000 a year if the deaths were evenly spread (of course they're not... Epidemic are always streaky and peaky).
