So here's my line on tomorrow (revised at 2200, because I was working off old numbers):
+8 Republican, -0/+4 to the senate
+63 Republican, -0/+16 to the house
I predict zero Republican senate seats lost, and the following as gains, or *strong maybes:
- Arkansas - Boozman
- *California - Fiorina
- *Colorado - Buck
- *Connecticut - McMahon
- Illinois - Kirk
- Indiana - Coats
- *Nevada - Angle
- North Dakota - Hoeven
- Penn - Toomey
- * Washington - Rossi
- West VA - Raese
- Wisconsin - Johnson
I'm not really sure about CA, CT, NV or WA. I'm predicting Republican pickup of West VA, even though polls are a tossup to a slight Dem hold. I don't trust that poll data, and I don't think it's a tossup. I'm leaning strong towards Rossi picking up. I'm leaning strong against Fiorina picking up. Right now, I'm completely split on Angle and McMahon.
The house picture is a lot fuzzier of course, since there's so many close races.
First thing, there will probably be two losses of Rep seats:
- Delaware AL - Carney
- Louisiana 2nd - Richmond
I don't see either as iffy right now; but I'm pretty sure those are the only losses.
Now, the iffys...
- * Alabama 2 - Roby
- * Arizona 7 - McLung
- * California 47 - Tran
- * Colorado 7 - Frazier
- * Conn 5 - Caligiuri
- * Idaho 1 - Labrador
- * Indiana 1 - Walorski
- * Kentucky 6 - Barr
- * Minnesota 8 - Cravaack
- * Missouri 4 - Hartzler
- * North Carolina 2 - Ellmers
- * North Carolina 7 - Pantano
- * Penn 12 - Burns
- * Rhode Island 1 - Loughlin
- * Virginia 11 - Fimian
- * Washington 2 - Koster
And the likely pickups:
- Arizona 1 - Gosar
- Arizona 5 - Schweikert
- Arizona 8 - Kelly
- Arkansas 1 - Crawford
- Arkansas 2 - Griffin
- California 11 - Harmer
- California 20 - Vidak
- Colorado 3 - Tipton
- Colorado 4 - Gardner
- Connecticut 4 - Debicella
- Florida 2 - Southerland
- Florida 8 - Webster
- Florida 22 - West
- Florida 24 - Adams
- Georgia 2 - Keown
- Georgia 8 - Scott
- Illinois 11 - Kinzinger
- Illinois 14 - Hultgren
- Illinois 17 - Schilling
- Indiana 8 - Buchson
- Indiana 9 - Young
- Kansas 3 - Yoder
- Louisiana 3 - Landry
- Maryland 1 - Harris
- Mass 10 - Perry
- Michigan 1 - Benishek
- Michigan 7 - Walberg
- Mississippi 1 - Nunnelee
- Mississippi 4 - Palazzo
- Nevada 3 - Heck
- New Hampshire 1 - Guinta
- New Hampshire 2 - Bass
- New Jersey 3 - Runyan
- New Mexico 1 - Barela
- New Mexico 2 - Pearce
- New York 19 - Hayworth
- New York 20 - Gibson
- New York 23 - Doheny
- North Carolina 8 - Johnson
- North Dakota AL - Berg
- Ohio 1 - Chabot
- Ohio 6 - Johnson
- Ohio 15 - Stivers
- Ohio 16 - Renacci
- Ohio 18 - Gibbs
- Oregon 5 - Bruun
- Penn 3 - Kelly
- Penn 7 - Meehan
- Penn 8 - Fitzpatrick
- Penn 10 - Marino
- Penn 11 - Barletta
- S. Carolina 5 - Mulvaney
- S. Dakota AL - Noem
- Tenn 4 - DesJarlais
- Tenn 6 - Black
- Tenn 8 - Fincher
- Texas 17 - Flores
- Texas 23 - Canseco
- Virginia 2 - Rigel
- Virginia 5 - Hurt
- Virginia 9 - Griffith
- Washington 3 - Herrero
- W. Virginia 1 - McKinley
- Wisconsin 7 - Duffy
- Wisconsin 8 - Ribble
I'm very iffy on CA 47, CT 5, and RI 1. I'm pretty solid on Labrador taking over Minnicks seat in Idaho (my congressman); as Minnick has been desperately robocalling my house every few hours, AND I got a personal phone call from a staffer. I'm pretty solid on Grijalva losing Arizona 7. The rest... who knows.
UPDATED with new data at 2200
