How well did I handicap?

Oh... Pretty damn good all things considered...

Look at that map... it's the Urban Archipelago concept made real... 

So, a couple days ago I posted my election predictions, both on base numbers, and on key races.

Lets see how I did shall we?

First, the total numbers

+8 Republican, -0/+4 to the senate

+63 Republican, -0/+16 to the house

I'm looking pretty good here actually. Not brilliant, but not bad.

As of this moment, it's +5 to the Republicans for senate, but could still end up +8. Colorado and Washington's senate races are exactly tied up, and it could be three weeks (not including law suits) before they are resolved. Also it will be at least two weeks before all the write in votes for Alaska are processed, but it looks like Lisa Murkowski will easily retain her seat.

These races are crucial. Murkowski was a republican in the last session and has been one her entire career, but she ran this race as an independent, and has indicated that she MAY choose to caucus with the democrats. If the dems retain the other two seats, I think it's possible. If they lose those seats I think Murkowski will stick with the Republicans. That would put things officially at 49-49-2 (the "independents" Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman). In that circumstance, its entirely possible some democrats may defect and move to the Republican side of the chamber, throwing them control of the senate.

If it ends up 49-49 look for Manchin as a potential conversion either to Republican or to "independent". He's going to want to vote against Reid and Obama most of the time, and with Reid in control, that could get him punished.

On the house side, I was also pretty close; currently standing a +61 to the Republicans, with 11 races left to resolve, 9 of them most likely to go Republican. So I'm almost certainly going to make my +63, and it could go as high as +72 (though +69 or +70 is more likely).

Ok, specific predictions, how did I do?

I predict zero Republican senate seats lost, and the following as gains, or *strong maybes:

1. Arkansas - Boozman
2. *California - Fiorina
   
3. *Colorado - Buck
   
4. *Connecticut - McMahon
   
5. Illinois - Kirk
   
6. Indiana - Coats
   
7. *Nevada - Angle
   
8. North Dakota - Hoeven
   
9. Penn - Toomey
   
10. * Washington - Rossi
    
11. West VA - Raese
    
12. Wisconsin - Johnson

Damn, missed one.... There were no real Republican losses, unless you count Murkowski, who is currently sitting as a republican, and may continue to do so. I'm counting CO and WA as wins for now, but as you'll note, I had them asterisked for a reason. The three I was pretty sure the Reps wouldn't get, they didn't.

The one thing I was surprised about was Manchin vs. Raese, but frankly I count him more as a push than a loss given theres a very good chance he's going to go "independent" or even switch parties entirely.

Onto the house... again I'll code the Republican pickups as red, the democratic retains as blue, and any dem pickups I'll code green.

First thing, there will probably be two losses of Rep seats:

1. Delaware AL - Carney
2. Louisiana 2nd - Richmond

I don't see either as iffy right now; but I'm pretty sure those are the only losses.

Got it in one.

Now, the iffys...

1. * Alabama 2 - Roby
2. * Arizona 7 - McClung
3. * California 47 - Tran
4. * Colorado 7 - Frazier
5. * Conn 5 - Caligiuri
6. * Idaho 1 - Labrador
7. * Indiana 2 - Walorski
8. * Kentucky 6 - Barr
9. * Minnesota 8 - Cravaack
10. * Missouri 4 - Hartzler
11. * North Carolina 2 - Ellmers
12. * North Carolina 7 - Pantano
13. * Penn 12 - Burns
14. * Rhode Island 1 - Loughlin
15. * Virginia 11 - Fimian
16. * Washington 2 - Koster

The iffys were, iffy. KY6, VA11, and WA2 are still 50/50 tossups (though I expect KY6 and WA2 to go Rep); but overall, the Republicans picked seven of the iffys.

And the likely pickups:

1. Arizona 1 - Gosar
2. Arizona 5 - Schweikert
3. Arizona 8 - Kelly
4. Arkansas 1 - Crawford
5. Arkansas 2 - Griffin
6. California 11 - Harmer
7. California 20 - Vidak
8. Colorado 3 - Tipton
9. Colorado 4 - Gardner
10. Connecticut 4 - Debicella
11. Florida 2 - Southerland
12. Florida 8 - Webster
13. Florida 22 - West
14. Florida 24 - Adams
15. Georgia 2 - Keown
16. Georgia 8 - Scott
17. Illinois 11 - Kinzinger
18. Illinois 14 - Hultgren
19. Illinois 17 - Schilling
20. Indiana 8 - Buchson
21. Indiana 9 - Young
22. Kansas 3 - Yoder
23. Louisiana 3 - Landry
24. Maryland 1 - Harris
25. Mass 10 - Perry
26. Michigan 1 - Benishek
27. Michigan 7 - Walberg
28. Mississippi 1 - Nunnelee
29. Mississippi 4 - Palazzo
30. Nevada 3 - Heck
31. New Hampshire 1 - Guinta
32. New Hampshire 2 - Bass
33. New Jersey 3 - Runyan
34. New Mexico 1 - Barela
35. New Mexico 2 - Pearce
36. New York 19 - Hayworth
37. New York 20 - Gibson
38. New York 23 - Doheny
39. North Carolina 8 - Johnson
40. North Dakota AL - Berg
41. Ohio 1 - Chabot
42. Ohio 6 - Johnson
43. Ohio 15 - Stivers
44. Ohio 16 - Renacci
45. Ohio 18 - Gibbs
46. Oregon 5 - Bruun
47. Penn 3 - Kelly
48. Penn 7 - Meehan
49. Penn 8 - Fitzpatrick
50. Penn 10 - Marino
51. Penn 11 - Barletta
52. S. Carolina 5 - Mulvaney
53. S. Dakota AL - Noem
54. Tenn 4 - DesJarlais
55. Tenn 6 - Black
56. Tenn 8 - Fincher
57. Texas 17 - Flores
58. Texas 23 - Canseco
59. Virginia 2 - Rigel
60. Virginia 5 - Hurt
61. Virginia 9 - Griffith
62. Washington 3 - Herrero
63. W. Virginia 1 - McKinley
64. Wisconsin 7 - Duffy
65. Wisconsin 8 - Ribble

If Harmer and Debicalla pull it out (they're 50/50)  will only have missed six out of 65... not bad. In addition, NY state added 13, 24, and 29 as unexpected pickups.

It really looks like a 67 seat minimum, and maybe up to a 72... amazing.

Oh and a couple interesting factoids. There are now only seven states with all democratic House contingents: Hawaii, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware, Vermont, and Maine... Coincidentally, excluding Maine, those are six of the eight smallest states (New Jersey and New Hampshire are the other two, Main is 11th).  There are nine with all Republican house members, and all but New Hampshire are in the 20 largest.

Of course that's geographic area, not population... but look at that map above. 

Eight of the top ten states in population, are now also represented by a HUGE geographic majority, AND either a popular majority or very close to it, AND either a district majority or very close to it (CA and NY, have a few very small geographic but high population districts that skew it) of Republicans.

If you exclude the LA basin (which has more than 20 districts) CA is by far majority Republican, even leaving in San Diego, San Jose, and San Francisco. If you take out those four metropolitan areas (geographically less than 10% of the state), California is ENTIRELY Republican with the exception of one District (around Santa Cruz). Democrats in California are pretty much limited to 50 miles from the coast, in cities with populations over a million.

In New York state, right about half the land area went red. So did just under half the population as a whole. If it weren't for 2 points (3500 votes), NY23, which itself is about 1/4 the land area of the state, would have gone red.

In Florida, only six of 25 districts are Blue.

In NJ, half the districts went red (well, 6 of 13) more than 3/4 of the land area, and about half the population, went red.

In Ohio, only six of 18 districts stayed blue, and now more than 2/3 the population are represented by Republicans. 

In Michigan, only Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint stayed blue.

In Illinois, 11 of 19 districts comprising 80% of the states land area went red. Outside of the immediate Chicago metropolitan area, only 1 district is still Dem.

In Minnesota only 4 out of 8 districts are still blue.

In Oregon, 2/3 the land area is red, though that's only 1 district... I've mentioned before, if it isn't along I5 the pols in Oregon don't know it exists.

This is one that tickles me the most... Washington State, 5 out of 9 districts representing more than 3/4 the land area and almost 1/2 the population, are now Republican


In fact, of the top 20 states in population, only California, New York, Massachusetts, and Maryland don't now have either a majority, parity, or plurality of  Republican representation.  In the top 30, only Oregon and Connecticut get added to that list.

In all,. 39 states have majority, parity, or plurality Republican representation. Of the remaining 11, states, only CA, NY and MA are individually electorally significant; and together those 11 states don't have sufficient electoral votes to elect a president (just about half actually) and most of them are going to be losing at least one electoral vote each, some will lose two votes.  

That's going to make the upcoming redistricting very interesting... and then, 2012