Sunday, September 24, 2006

Broncs and Pats, here's hopin.

So, we had another ugly victory last week; to make us one of 11 undefeated teams heading into week 3.

Of course the Broncos are 1-1 coming off a 9-6 squeaker against Kansas City at home, and an embarrassing 18-10 loss at St. louis; so maybe I shouldn't be as worried as I am.

Denver has always had a problem beting the pats at home (and the reverse is true); especially whe it's chilly, and it IS a night game tonight... but the game time forecast is in the mid 60s, perfect football weather, though they are expecting 15 mph winds so that ma be a factor.

On the injury front, New England is hurting a lot worse than Denver, including key player Tom Brady, who WILL play, but who has a sore shoulder; and with both starting tackles hurt (Matt Light has a strained knee and Nick Kaczur separated his shoulder) the line is going to be weaker than it needs to be against a team like Denver, plus we've got two wide recievers out or hurt.

Of course the Broncs may be looking a little softer on D than might be expected, with some injuries there including D-End Courtney Brown; but I wouldnt count on it.

The good news is, the Pats defense is doing well with the new 4-3 configuration (with some glaring exceptions of broken coverage against the jets); and Denvers offense is struggling, with jsut 1 toudchdown, and 19 points in two games. Plummer is jsut not cutting it here; and in fact has been a disappointment in the NFL in general after a spectacualr ASU career. Add in Cedric Cobbs, Mike Bell, and Rod Smith to that injured list, and we're going to see Denver trying hard to get that ball up the field against a solid defense.

I'm thinking a low scoring game here folks; and a lot of turnovers. Both QBs are just above the 50% completion mark at the moment, and both seem to have turnoveritis, with Brady at 2 interceptions for three touchdowns, and 7 sacks; and Plummer currently rated third from the bottom, with only Kerry Collins and Andrew Walter trailing (who the hell is Andrew Walter?).

I'm expecting to see a lot of attempts on the groud, shut down well on both sides. What I'm HOPING for, is that the pats can finally get some air going against Denvers only average pass rush; but with the line weakened and Bradys shoulder hurt I'm not confident.

My call? Denver gets shut down on touchdowns again, MAYBE pulling one, and two field goals. Pats pull two TD's and a field goal, maybe two; or worst case a TD and three field goals.

The vegas line is at New England for six and a half, with an o/u of 38.5. I think it'd be a miracle if they hit the over; but the 6.5 is reasonable. I think we're gonna take the game; but not beat the spread.